Seats visited by party leaders so far in the election campaign

All three of the main party leaders have been on the road every day since the General Election was called – but how many events have they held, and what kind of constituencies have they visited?

– Rishi Sunak

The Prime Minister has clocked up the most number of appearances, holding official events across 19 different constituencies in the nine days since the start of the campaign on May 23.

All but two of the 19 seats are being defended at the election by the Conservatives.

The exceptions are Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross in Scotland and Belfast East in Northern Ireland, which were won in 2019 by the SNP and the DUP respectively.

Every other seat which the PM has visited is either a Labour or Liberal Democrat target.

The ranking of these seats on the target lists of Labour and the Lib Dems is determined by the size of the swing in the share of the vote that is needed for the constituency to change hands, with the most vulnerable seat ranked at number one.

Of the Tory-held seats on Labour’s target list, Mr Sunak has so far visited Bury North in Greater Manchester (Labour target number seven), Vale of Glamorgan in Wales (number 22), Milton Keynes Central in Buckinghamshire (number 46), Harrow East in London (number 94), Stoke-on-Trent North in Staffordshire (number 103), Macclesfield in Cheshire (number 109), Erewash in Derbyshire (number 120), Cannock Chase in Staffordshire (number 304) and his own North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond & Northallerton (number 343).

He has also visited almost as many Tory-held seats on the Lib Dems’ target list: Wimbledon in London (Lib Dem target number three), St Ives in Cornwall (number 16), Harpenden & Berkhamsted in Hertfordshire (number 51), Chesham & Amersham in Buckinghamshire (number 76), Devon Central (number 121), Cornwall South East (number 153), Hinckley & Bosworth in Leicestershire (number 194) and Honiton & Sidmouth in Devon (number 266).

Some of these constituencies were won very comfortably by the Conservatives at the last general election, with notional majorities in 2019 as large as 19,879 in Cannock Chase, 22,851 in Hinckley & Bosworth and 26,229 in Honiton & Sidmouth.

Notional majorities reflect what would have happened had the 2019 general election taken place using the new constituency boundaries in place this year.

It is these notional figures that are used to determine the lists of target seats for each party at this election.

This is why Chesham & Amersham is being treated as a Conservative-held Lib Dem target, even though the Lib Dems won the seat from the Tories at a by-election in 2021.

Mr Sunak held two separate events in Chesham & Amersham this week, and did the same in Milton Keynes Central, perhaps acknowledging the importance of these seats to his party’s electoral fortunes.

The Prime Minister has yet to make a campaign visit to any constituency being defended by Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

– Sir Keir Starmer

Of the 13 constituencies visited by the Labour leader so far, all but one are on his party’s target list.

Sir Keir has held events in Vale of Glamorgan (Labour target number 22); Chipping Barnet in London (number 37), Worcester (number 70), Worthing East & Shoreham in West Sussex (number 76), South Ribble in Lancashire (number 95), Stevenage in Hertfordshire (number 98), Monmouthshire in Wales (number 111), Stafford (number 153) and Gillingham & Rainham in Kent (number 201).

All of these seats being defended by the Conservatives.

He has also visited the Scottish seats of Glasgow East (number 83) and Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West (number 102), both of which are being defended by the SNP, and Brighton Pavilion in East Sussex (number 213) which has been won by the Greens at every general election since 2010.

The one seat visited by Sir Keir that is not on his party’s target list was Derby South, where Labour is defending a notional majority at this election of 6,019.

Conservative notional majorities in the constituencies visited by the Labour leader range from 2,566 in Vale of Glamorgan to 15,119 in Gillingham & Rainham.

In Worcester – where Sir Keir held two separate events – the Tories are defending a notional majority of 6,758.

– Sir Ed Davey

The Liberal Democrat leader has visited fewer constituencies than either Mr Sunak or Sir Keir – 12 in total – but has ticked off more of his party’s top targets.

Sir Ed has held events in Wimbledon in London (number three on the Lib Dems’ target list), Cambridgeshire South (number five), Cheltenham in Gloucestershire (number six), Eastbourne in East Sussex (number nine) Westmorland & Lonsdale in Cumbria (number 15), Winchester in Hampshire (number 19), Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe in Wales (number 25), Frome & East Somerset (number 43), Harpenden & Berkhamsted in Hertfordshire (number 51) and Chichester in West Sussex (number 103).

All of these are seats being defended by the Conservatives, with notional majorities ranging from 839 in Wimbledon to 19,622 in Chichester.

It is telling that both Mr Sunak and Sir Ed visited Harpenden & Berkhamsted in the first week of the campaign, as it is typical of the sort of “blue wall” constituency the Lib Dems are hoping to take from the Tories.

Sir Ed has also visited Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy in Scotland, which the SNP are defending and is more plausibly a Labour target (number 33 on their list) than one for the Lib Dems (number 186); and Bath in Somerset, a safe seat where the Lib Dems are defending a notional majority of 12,125.

He has yet to visit a seat being defended by Labour – perhaps reflecting the fact there are very few constituencies at this election that are Labour-Lib Dem battlegrounds.

All data on notional majorities and target lists have been compiled by Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of the PA news agency, the BBC, ITN and Sky News.