Opinion poll round-up on the last day of the election campaign
Labour’s average poll rating has fallen from 45% to 39% over the course of the campaign.
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.Polling companies are publishing their final figures ahead of the General Election on Thursday, all of which show Labour holding on to the large lead it has enjoyed since the campaign began six weeks ago.
These are the polls that have been published so far:
– Redfield Wilton (carried out online June 28-July 2 among 20,000 adults in Britain): Labour 41%, Conservative 22%, Reform 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 6%, SNP 3%, other parties 1%
– Savanta (by telephone June 26-July 2, 1,744 UK adults): Labour 38%, Conservative 18%, Reform 17%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 6%, SNP 3%, other parties 5%
– Techne UK (online June 28-July 2, 5,503 UK adults): Labour 40%, Conservative 21%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 6%, SNP 3%, other parties 3%
– Verian (online June 28-July 1, 2,135 adults in Britain): Labour 36%, Conservative 21%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 13%, Green 7%, SNP 3%, other parties 4%
– Whitestone Insight (online July 1-2, 2,008 adults in Britain): Labour 38%, Conservative 21%, Reform 18%, Lib Dems 10%, Green 7%, SNP 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%, other parties 2%
– BMG (online June 30-July 2, 1,854 adults in Britain): Labour 39%, Conservative 22%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 7%, SNP 3%, other parties 3%
– Deltapoll (online June 29-July 3, 1,737 adults in Britain): Labour 39%, Conservative 22%, Reform 17%, Lib Dems 10%, Green 7%, SNP 2%, other parties 3%
– Savanta (online July 2-3, 2,101 UK adults): Labour 39%, Conservative 20%, Reform 17%, Lib Dems 10%, Green 5%, SNP 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, other parties 6%
An average of all polls with fieldwork completed during the seven days to July 3 puts Labour on 39%, the party’s lowest rating since the campaign began, 18 points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, followed by Reform on 16%, the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 6%.
The Tories are up slightly on the figures for the previous week while Labour are down, with the averages for the seven days to June 26 being Labour 41%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11% and Greens 6%.
On May 22, the day Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the General Election, the seven-day averages stood at Labour 45%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 9% and Greens 6%.
The averages have been calculated by the PA news agency and are based on polls published by BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Focaldata, Ipsos, JL Partners, More In Common, Norstat, Opinium, People Polling, Redfield Wilton, Savanta, Survation, TechneUK, Verian, WeThink, Whitestone and YouGov.