Budget looms large after recess as Labour bids for renewed momentum

A new parliamentary session begins with new MPs still finding their feet in Westminster and seasoned hands looking for a positive way forward for their parties.

While most would have enjoyed a summer break, the Prime Minister decided to forgo his due to the rioting that spread across the country following a knife attack on July 29, which left three children dead and eight more injured.

Here is a preview of what to expect in the session ahead and beyond.

– Labour aims to regain early post-election momentum

The Prime Minister has been keen to suggest the Government is hamstrung by the state of the public finances at a time when the country faces daunting problems.

The strategy has been to manage public expectations at a sensitive time, while also pointing the finger firmly at the previous government under various leaders for causing what Sir Keir Starmer described as as “deep rot” and a “societal black hole”.

This approach is likely to continue as Labour seeks to ensure the Conservatives are not let off the hook for previous decisions, but there will be an attempt to blend fervent criticism with at least a dash of optimism.

With this in mind, the first two Bills under the Government are set to pass through the Commons this week.

Ministers and backbenchers will be hoping these serve as a demonstration that the Government has not entirely lost the momentum created by a flurry of policy announcements immediately after the general election.

– Promises of more progress to come

The Budget Responsibility Bill is a symbolic move to show how serious Labour is about economic stability.

It will ban future governments from holding a fiscal event without an assessment by the Office for Budget Responsibility, as happened with the mini-budget during Liz Truss’s short stay in Downing Street.

Meanwhile, the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill will enable public sector companies to operate services as franchises.

The Great British Energy Bill will also receive a second reading on Thursday. It aims to ensure long-term energy security, alongside the establishment of the UK’s state-owned energy company.

The Government hopes this Bill will support the partnership between Great British Energy and the monarchy’s property firm to accelerate deployment of offshore wind, new technologies and support UK supply chains.

In the House of Lords, the Crown Estate Bill, which sets out greater powers for the Government to borrow and invest, will have a second reading.

In addition, Commons Leader Lucy Powell said we can expect a “packed legislative agenda” in the coming weeks, including Bills on renters’ reform and water regulation.

The Government is also expected to focus on improving workers’ rights, tightening the rules on MPs’ second jobs, and tackling the root causes of the energy crisis.

Ahead of Parliament’s return, Ms Powell said: “This new Labour Government is full of energy, full of ideas and full of drive to deliver our mandate for change. That’s why we’ve announced a packed legislative agenda focused on the people’s priorities.”

– The Budget looms large

While the new legislation will take up some bandwidth, the Budget on October 30 will be preoccupying minds on both sides of the House of Commons and beyond.

Comments by the Chancellor, the Prime Minister and Cabinet members have hinted at heavy limited options, difficult trade-offs and likely pain for some.

But, behind the scenes, there will be intense work going on to prevent the first major fiscal event of a new Labour Government being remembered as a blow to many, in sharp contrast to the promises of positive change made during the general election campaign.

Sir Keir Starmer is already facing a Labour backlash and fresh Tory attacks over the Government’s decision to strip the winter fuel payment from millions of pensioners.

Only those receiving pension credit or other means-tested benefits will be eligible for the payment in England and Wales as a result of the Government’s decision, which ministers have said is needed to help fill a £22 billion black hole in the public finances.

The issue is set to linger as there is clearly plenty of unease in the Labour party about the move, which the Conservatives will seek to exploit.

The key question is whether the Chancellor can create some flexibility to restrict and perhaps relieve some of the pain that is set to be delivered in the Budget.

A range of options for generating tax revenue have been touted.

Capital gains tax is at a historic low, so increasing it may be considered a good option.

The Chancellor may look at the various pension tax reliefs which are said to cost the Government around £50 billion a year.

However, previous chancellors have opted not to make changes in a politically difficult area, or have actually relaxed the rules.

There may also be a temptation to make changes to inheritance tax to target the most wealthy.

While Labour has confirmed tax rises ahead, Rachel Reeves is expected counter this by focusing on growth ahead of the Budget in a bid to restore some optimism, with a keen eye on business perceptions of sound strategy and economic stability.

– Lengthy Tory leadership contest to deny new leader initial Budget response

The intensity of the Conservative Party leadership contest will ramp up in the coming weeks as votes will see candidates exit the race.

James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch launched their campaigns on Monday, while Tom Tugendhat will formally launch his campaign in a central London event on Tuesday with a promise to reset the party’s relationship with the public.

Former ministers Mel Stride and Dame Priti Patel are also running for the Tory leadership, while the sixth candidate, former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, has emerged as an outlier for placing his desire to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) at the heart of his campaign.

Candidates have been urged not to attack one another during the contest, to avoid the public division on display in the 2022 leadership contest which resulted in the head-to-head between Liz Truss and Mr Sunak.

But Mr Jenrick has faced veiled criticism from his rivals over his position on the ECHR, which he has blamed for blocking efforts to crack down on illegal immigration and deport foreign offenders.

The result of the contest will not be announced until November 2, meaning the new leader will miss the opportunity to challenge the new Government on what is expected to be a highly contentious Budget on October 30.

This would have provided the new leader with a prime opportunity to get on the front foot early.

The result also threatens to be overshadowed by the US presidential election on November 5.