Most of UK’s longest-running ‘bellwether’ seats won by Labour

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

Almost all of the UK’s longest-running “bellwether” seats have behaved true to form and been won by the party that also won the overall election: Labour.

Bellwether seats are constituencies where the local result has a habit of matching the national outcome.

They are seats that have a pattern of changing hands only when the government itself changes hands.

A small number of constituencies have been bellwethers for decades, and as such are watched with interest for what they may – or may not – suggest about the outcome of the entire election.

Dartford in Kent holds the longest record for being a bellwether.

Since 1964, whichever party wins Dartford has also gone on to form the government – a pattern that held true at this election, with the seat being gained by Labour from the Conservatives on a swing of 17.2 percentage points.

Four seats have been bellwethers at every general election since February 1974: Loughborough, Northampton North, Portsmouth North and Watford – and they have kept their status at this election, with all being won by Labour from the Tories.

Worcester has maintained its bellwether record since 1979, being another gain by Labour from the Conservatives.

But Harrow East, which prior to the election had been a bellwether since 1979, has now lost its status: the Conservatives held the seat.