Police brace for UK crime rise linked to heatwave

Police are bracing for a spike in crime across Britain linked to the ongoing heatwave and the cost of living crisis.

Police and crime commissioners (PCCs) have been urging forces to make preparations for expected increases in vandalism, fights, theft, shoplifting and anti-social behaviour.

Calls to 999 and 101 are already said to be “going through the roof” across the country, without any clear cause.

Festus Akinbusoye, the PCC for Bedfordshire, told a press conference in London: “I think this summer will pose challenges for police because it is the first proper summer in three years out of any sort of lockdown.

“If it continues to be this hot, that’s another challenge and the trifecta that adds to that is the cost of living. Having that combination could potentially create a challenging and demanding time for policing.

“I know that in my force and some others as well we’re looking to plan ahead to mitigate any risks.”

Steve Turner, the PCC for Cleveland, said that research in the US and other countries consistently shows a link between increasing temperatures and increasing crime.

“We see that in this country as well, over the summer crime will spike,” he added. “You’ve got people outside, you’ve got barbecues, street parties, people consuming more alcohol, spilling outside pubs and clubs. You are naturally going to see a crime spike and the hotter the weather gets the worse it is.”

The commissioners said they had not yet seen a rise in crime directly linked to the cost of living crisis in their areas, but were monitoring offences affected by price rises, such as people driving off from petrol stations without paying.

“I can imagine the pressure and strain the prices are going to put on people and if we don’t follow that through well enough it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Mr Turner said.

“If someone knows they’re not going to get caught they’re going to do it again.”

Earlier this year, HM chief inspector of constabulary suggested police should use “discretion” in dealing with crimes driven by poverty.

Former Merseyside chief constable Andy Cooke said that he was not “giving a carte blanche for people to go out shoplifting”, but wanted officers to ensure cases were “dealt with in the best way possible”.

The PCCs said they did not want the initial response to crimes to change, but the priority must then be preventing reoffending.

Mr Akinbusoye said: “if police take a hands-off approach to crime being committed because of the cost of living crisis, someone has to pay eventually and businesses are struggling too.

“I would want my police force to respond to that as they would any other theft or burglary or crime.

“The course of action after the initial response is a different matter, it may be a case of signposting them to other support services, but the initial response has to be the same regardless of the climate at the time.”

Mr Turner said PCCs are funding programmes aimed to prevent crime, including events in the school holidays to give teenagers constructive activities and at least one proper meal.

The Met Office has issued a red warning for Monday and Tuesday, covering an area from London up to Manchester and the Vale of York.

Tuesday is likely to be the hottest day, with the potential to top the UK record temperature of 38.7C, and warm and dry weather is forecast for much of the country for the rest of July.