How a third wave could affect lockdown reopening

The rapid spread of a coronavirus variant first detected in India, now known as the Delta variant, has lead to rising concerns that the next phase of lockdown easing may be delayed.

Boris Johnson has identified 21 June as the date from which England could enjoy the full relaxation of restrictions – a move that would see all legal limits on social contact removed and businesses such as nightclubs opening.

But a surge in cases of a the variant - which spreads more easily - has cast doubt over the final stage of the country’s roadmap out of lockdown.

Ministers are considering plans to keep some measures - such as the continued use of face masks and guidance on working from home - in place past this date.

Parts of England where the variant is spreading the fastest have been told to “minimise travel” and socialise outside where possible.

There have been 3,424 confirmed cases of this variant in the UK, according to the latest Public Health England (PHE) data - more than double the total the week before.

The spread of the Delta variant has already meant delays to Scotland’s tiered unlocking. While the rest of mainland Scotland entered level two restrictions last month, Moray and Glasgow were kept in the stricter level three measures due to outbreaks linked to the virus variant.

The government has said this new variant spreads more easily from person to person.

There is evidence that the Delta variant may be more transmissible than the Kent variant, now known as the Alpha variant, which emerged last year in the UK – but scientists aren’t sure by how much.

Deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam has said that most scientists believe the Delta variant to be less than 50 per cent more virulent than the one first detected in Kent.

There are cases in several parts of the UK, with new infections being confirmed each day – so it is likely that combined with its higher level of transmissibility, it could become the UK’s dominant strain.

Blackburn with Darwen recently overtook Bolton as the UK area with the highest rate of new coronavirus cases, with both places having recorded some of the highest number of cases of the Indian variant to date.

The health secretary said last week up to three quarters of new coronavirus infections in the UK could be down to the variant first detected in India.

Fortunately, scientists are optimistic that existing vaccines are effective against the Indian variant, with Mr Hancock, saying that early tests from Oxford University offer a “high degree of confidence” that the jabs offer protection against the Delta variant.

Across the UK almost three-quarters of the adult population has had their first Covid jab, with almost half having had their second.

Despite the protection offered by vaccines, some experts believe that the variant could result in the UK being hit by a third coronavirus wave.

Prof Andrew Hayward, an expert in infectious disease at University College London, said he thinks the UK could already be at the start of a third wave due to the variant.

Appearing on BBC Breakfast on Thursday, Prof Hayward, who is a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said: “Obviously we’re doing everything we can to contain the spread of that but it’s likely that more generalised measures may start to be needed to control it.”

But he said the scale of the problem posed by the variant is larger than others the UK has dealt with so far.

“Previously, we’ve been able to halt the spread of some other variants through localised [efforts] like surge testing, but the scale of this is different and the number of places affected is different and the number of cases is different and the speed of increase is different,” he said.

Prof Hayward said he had a “hunch” the Delta variant was going to become “the dominant strain across the country, maybe even across the world”, adding that it was “a race against the vaccine and the virus“ in which “the virus just got faster”.

It remains to be seen whether the final roadmap phase will be delayed – but the government has repeatedly stressed over the last week that it is a real possibility.

Last week, Matt Hancock said it was “too early” to say whether the 21 June lifting of restrictions will go ahead.

The prime minister’s spokesperson said last month the government cannot yet be definitive about restrictions being ended on 21 June, reinforcing Mr Johnson’s comments that the variant could cause “serious disruption” to the roadmap plans.

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi acknowledged "we have to be cautious" because of concerns about the infection rate.

The government will wait for the latest data on 14 June before deciding whether to proceed with lifting England's lockdown the following week.

Some experts have expressed concerns over plans for the full lifting of restrictions on 21 June.

Professor Adam Finn from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) said there are still many people who are vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19 and pressing ahead with the easing of restrictions on June 21 "may be a bad decision".

Professor Ravi Gupta, a government scientific adviser, has called for a delay the full lifting of restrictions by "a few weeks", warning the coronavirus's ability to adapt in the face of vaccines has still left the UK in a vulnerable position.

Prof Hayward, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said cases of the Indian variant are doubling every week and "it only takes five or six doublings for that to get up to say a quarter million cases".

He said there “is a good argument for caution until such time as we've got a much higher proportion of the population double vaccinated”.

But a fellow member of the committee has called for the roadmap out of lockdown to continue as planned.

Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, said it was important to press ahead with the 21 June easing from a societal point of view.

"By the time we get to June 21, everybody who is in the nine priority groups or the highest risk will have had both jabs and would have had a period of time to consolidate the immunity,” he added.

Professor Robert Read from the JCVI said it is “quite possible” ministers could move to a full reopening on 21 June, but it would depend on the rate of "vaccine failure", where the jabs being rolled out do not afford protection against severe infection from the Indian variant.

Additional reporting by Press Association