Subdued marching season may lead to return of home rule

As the sound of the Royal Black Preceptory drums faded across Belfast at the weekend, the authorities in Northern Ireland were quietly celebrating.

While never a sectarian flashpoint on the scale of Drumcree or Londonderry, the loyal order's march past the nationalist Ardoyne was greeted with a few placards and jeers but no violence. It signalled an end to the most peaceful loyalist marching season for years.

This year saw no serious riots or street clashes, in contrast to previous summers, which were marked by frequent disturbances.

The hope now is that this virtual absence of communal violence will raise the chances of success for the new bout of political negotiations due to start later this month.

The British and Irish governments, with Unionist and republican representatives, are to re-engage in talks aimed at restoring the devolved government, which has been suspended since late last year.

The summer was not entirely peaceful, given that several paramilitary murders were committed in different parts of Northern Ireland. But the overall killing rate is markedly down, as is the incidence of peaceline clashes and pipe-bomb attacks.

The drop in violence is attributed to a number of factors, the most important being an effective clampdown on the loyalist Ulster Defence Association and the killing or jailing of some of its most militant leaders. These include the imprisoned Johnny "Mad Dog" Adair, who encouraged rioting and sectarian attacks while he was at large, as well as sparking off internal feuding.

Since earlier this year, the organisation has deliberately maintained a low profile in the hope of improving its appalling image. As the Belfast author Brian Rowan wrote in his new book, The Armed Peace: "The UDA has no credibility and no reputation."

The view in security circles, however, is that the UDA has had a holiday rather than going out of business, and remains a distinct threat.

Another factor during the summer was the emergence of a network of community workers on both sides of the divide who, keeping in touch by mobile phones, helped to defuse potential incidents and keep things calm.

A security source said: "There has been dialogue in all sorts of different communities, which has been important, involving the police and many other agencies.

"The police have had very few officers injured," the source added. "Sick leave has been cut almost by half. One reason is that fewer officers are getting hammered and pelted with stones and bricks."

The IRA appears to have put some effort into ensuring republican areas have remained quiet this summer. It has been under pressure to scale down its activities as a way of persuading sceptical Unionists to go back into government with Sinn Fein.

Chief Constable Hugh Orde said last week: "There are no indications whatsoever that the Provisional IRA is going to go back to an armed struggle." But he has also publicly blamed the IRA for abducting and killing a rival republican, Gareth O'Connor, who disappeared in May.

IRA responsibility for the death of Mr O'Connor may make a deal between Unionists and republicans more difficult to reach during autumn negotiations, which already face many other obstacles. The most immediate of these is the battle royal for control of the Ulster Unionist Party. Its leader, David Trimble, is to confront his critics, led by three rebel MPs, at yet another meeting of the party's ruling council within the next few weeks.

Mr Trimble generally prevails over such challenges, but tends to do so by narrow margins, which means the outcome will be anxiously watched. A defeat would probably force his resignation, which in turn would probably rule out future Unionist involvement with republicans in government.

Talks last May aimed at paving the way for fresh elections and a new administration failed amid considerable acrimony. Since then, large sections of grassroots Unionist opinion have seemed happy under direct rule from Westminster.