Has Starmer finally found the best way to stop the small boats?

With the world’s focus on the other side of the Atlantic this week, Sir Keir Starmer is using the time to try to make some headway with his plan to “smash the gangs” responsible for people smuggling across the English channel.

On Monday he announced more cash for his crime-busting border security command – taking its total funding to £150m over two years – despite concerns from some experts that the changes would not deter illegal migrants from coming to the UK and stop small boat crossings.

On Thursday, the prime minister is set to use a visit to Hungary to announce new agreements with Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo to clamp down on organised immigration crime abroad through an increase in intelligence sharing.

But will it work?

While the threat of being sent to Rwanda did not result in a drop in people attempting the perilous journey across the Channel, the Conservatives did have some success with a partnership forged with Albania.

2022 saw a particularly high number of Albanians – over 12,600 compared to 800 the previous year– arriving on British shores, but this figure fell in 2023 to 2024 after the two countries signed a partnership agreement.

Experts have been reluctant to conclude that the agreement alone was responsible for the drop, with the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford saying there may be other factors to consider.

Either way Labour are keen to build on the Albanian deal with “increased international collaboration on irregular migration” and a new cash injection for border security.

Stopping the small boats has been a key target of successive Conservative prime ministers, but with little success. The number of asylum seekers arriving in the UK has continued to rise, with more than 5,400 people having crossed the Channel in small boats last month – the highest monthly figure since October 2022.

Under Rishi Sunak, the Conservative government pledged £500m to the French police – with money going on more equipment for border surveillance such as binoculars, drones, and dash-cams.

To get around the French police’s surveillance, migrants have also spread out further along the coast, launching boats from new beaches in an attempt to avoid detection. However, this tactic often forces them to take longer and more dangerous routes, increasing their risk of death. 2024 has been the deadliest year for Channel migrant deaths on record, with over 65 people killed.

Charities in northern France have also reported increased aggression by police towards migrants, including the routine dismantling of their makeshift camps, which is prompting more to consider making the dangerous journey across the Channel to escape their desperate circumstances.

For charities on the ground in France, it sounds like more of the same and fails to acknowledge that if small boat migrants could apply for safe routes to come to the UK, most of the demand for smugglers would be removed.

Care4Calais described the new plan as “expensive, unworkable and most importantly deadly”.

Both Labour and the Tories have ruled out the easiest way of stemming the flow of small boat migrants - giving them a safe route to apply to come to the UK as refugees - saying they are politically unworkable.