War with Russia greater risk now than any time since Cold War, says UK army chief

The outgoing chief of defence staff has said he is worried about the situation on the border between Belarus and Poland, warning there is a greater risk of accidental conflict breaking out with Russia than at any time since the Cold War.

General Sir Nick Carter, who steps down at the end of the month, said migrants were being pushed by Minsk “on to European Union borders” to try and destabilise the region.

He said the action was straight out of the “Russian playbook”, amid mounting tensions ​​after the EU alleged that Belarus had begun flying in migrants to trigger a humanitarian crisis on its border with Poland.

A large number of migrants, many from the Middle East, are in a makeshift camp on the Belarusian side of the border, with Polish authorities daily reporting new attempts by the migrants to breach the divide.

The Belarusian defence ministry has accused Poland of an “unprecedented” military build-up on the border, saying migration control did not warrant the concentration of 15,000 troops backed by tanks, air defence assets and other weapons.

Sir Nick, asked on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show whether he was worried that the situation could quickly escalate into “something really serious”, replied: “Yes, I think I am. I think this is a classic case of the sort of hybrid playbook where you link disinformation to destabilisation and the idea of pushing migrants on to the European Union's borders is a classic example of that sort of thing.”

The Ministry of Defence announced on Friday that it would be sending in a small team of British armed forces personnel into Poland to provide “engineering support”.

Sir Nick stressed that those being sent are there to help to build fences along the border, rather than fighting forces.

“What it shows is our unity with Poland and the fact we stand beside Poland against these sorts of threats,” he added.

The EU has accused Belarus' authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, of encouraging illegal border crossings as an attack to retaliate against the bloc's sanctions on his government for its crackdown on domestic protests after his disputed 2020 re-election.

Belarus denies the allegations but says it will no longer stop refugees and migrants from trying to enter the EU, in a move that has seen Syrian, Libyan and other migrants head to the region in the hope of slipping through.

The outgoing head of the armed forces said he could not predict whether the situation would turn into a “shooting war” but stressed that the UK and Nato “have to be on our guard”.

Sir Nick described the Belarussian tension and trouble around Ukraine as a “classic example of a bit of distraction”.

“If you look at the Russian playbook over the years, the idea of Maskirovka, as they call it - this sort of theatre that they apply to it - it's pretty typical of some stuff that's been going on for years and years and years,” he told the BBC.

Since the end of the Cold War, diplomats now face a more complex multi-polar world, he said, adding that “traditional diplomatic tools and mechanisms” were no longer available.

“Without those tools and mechanisms there is a greater risk that these escalations or this escalation could lead to miscalculation,” he said. “So I think that's the real challenge we have to be confronted with.”

Additional reporting by PA