Oxford cop who was too clever for his own good

Shortly after lunchtime on Wednesday afternoon, Boris Johnson and Sir Ian Blair sat down in the London Mayor's office overlooking the Thames. It had been billed as a routine meeting to mark Mr Johnson's assumption of control of the Metropolitan Police Authority but within minutes it became clear that it was the beginning of the end of the tempestuous tenure at Scotland Yard of Britain's top policeman.

As the two men sat back on sofas, the Mayor made it clear that his first outing as chairman of the MPA on Monday morning, where fatefully Sir Ian was due to present an assessment of the Yard's recent policing performance, would be used to explain publicly that he did not support the commissioner staying any longer in his £230,000-a-year post.

True to his reputation of refusing to rush into any decision, Sir Ian, 55, left the "tense" meeting determined to mull over his immediate future. He may have mulled over the words of Theodore Roosevelt, embossed on a paperweight given to him by his wife Felicity when he took office at New Scotland Yard in February 2005: "It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better."

But as he woke yesterday to find fresh allegations in a national newspaper that he had awarded a £15,000 contract to a friend, Sir Ian, 55, decided that – after publicly expressing his refusal to resign no fewer than 10 times since the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes – it was time to bow to his detractors.

The Oxford-educated policeman with a degree in English literature accepted that without the confidence of the maverick Old Etonian – and his newly-anointed political line manager – he could not continue to oversee London's battle against crime.

By 11am, Sir Ian was sitting in the airy office of the Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, ironically overlooking New Scotland Yard, and in front of her permanent secretary, Sir David Normington, and became the first commissioner to resign his post in 100 years.

The mood was described as "sombre" and Sir Ian made it clear that he was not open to any persuasion to reconsider his decision. For a man who had described himself as a "bit of a limpet", and only a fortnight ago evoked Mark Twain by saying, "the report of my death is an exaggeration" following claims that he was about to be ousted, it was a painful surrender which even some of his most fierce and loyal supporters had considered an inevitability.

One source with knowledge of the wranglings between the highest echelons of the Yard and City Hall said: "This was realpolitik. Sir Ian was under pressure across a gamut of issues but had said time and again that he would not and could not go. The feeling was that his talents no longer matched the problems he and the Met face. Rightly or wrongly, he was presented with a situation where he could no longer say no."

Indeed, the mounting pressures on the commissioner in recent months were considerable and, crucially, due to come to a head in a "perfect storm" of allegations of institutional incompetence, racism and political naivety.

The horrific death of Mr de Menezes, shot dead at point blank range by police marksmen in the mistaken belief that he was a suicide bomber on 22 July 2005, had long been the defining feature of Sir Ian's stint as commissioner, which was due to end in February 2010.

From the start, he was an unconventional choice to head the UK's largest police force. Recruited after graduating from Oxford, he soared through the ranks without spending much time on the streets. As a consequence, many coppers found it difficult to relate to him, viewing him more as an intellectual or politician than policeman.

This image was reinforced by his achievements as a member of the force. In the Eighties he headed a major inquiry into police corruption and wrote a book entitled Investigating Rape, which called for changes in the way officers addressed cases of sexual assault. He also worked to eradicate the Met's "canteen culture", which allegedly fostered sexism and racism.

His knighthood was awarded before he reached the top, further distancing him from his officers. Some have even speculated that this gap might explain why Blair was not fully briefed on the day of the de Menezes shooting.

Yet until the events of that day, the most senior officer in Britain had had to deal with little public embarrassment, other than slight criticism about being "New Labour's favourite policeman". He had even been praised for his sure-footed handling of the events of July 7. But in the wake of the killing of the Brazilian electrician, Sir Ian's record came under closer scrutiny – and his assured touch abandoned him.

An investigation was launched by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) into claims that he misled the public about when he knew an innocent man had been shot and was criticised for delaying the inquiry.

The opening two weeks ago of the inquest into the death of Mr de Menezes had been billed as the start of a process which could make Sir Ian's position untenable by examining whether the events were due to a systemic failure within the Metropolitan Police. A verdict of unlawful killing, one of the options open to the jury sitting at the Oval cricket ground, might have compelled the commissioner to carry the blame amid claims that detractors were waiting until the result of the inquest to force his dismissal, as Sir Ian was well aware.

While the Stockwell shooting was the most serious incident to face Sir Ian's Met, the complaints of racial discrimination most tarnished his reputation.

Assistant Commissioner Tarique Ghaffur, the third most senior officer at the Yard and the country's leading Asian policeman, accused Sir Ian in August of discriminating against him "over a long period" and said other commanders had "victimised" him.

In the face of Mr Ghaffur's stated intention to carry on in his post, it was announced that the Uganda-born Asian was being sent on "gardening leave". The perception of a "race war" within the upper ranks of the Met deepened when two weeks later another high-profile Asian officer, Commander Ali Dizaei, was suspended by the MPA over allegations that he fabricated evidence. The Metropolitan branch of the National Black Police Association decided to cut links with senior managers at the Yard, claiming that Mr Dizaei was the victim of a "sustained witch hunt".

The bitter irony was lost on few that Sir Ian – the officer whose egalitarian and liberal credentials led to him being demonised by his right-wing critics as "the PC PC" – should find himself mired in allegations that he was in charge of a racist force and had surrounded himself with a gilded circle of white, middle-aged lieutenants from which talented Asian officers were excluded.

Grumbles that Sir Ian – perceived by many in the rank and file as a politically-aware technocrat trying to step into the shoes of his highly-regarded predecessor Lord Stevens – had lost the respect of his officers gained pace.

Brian Paddick, a former Yard deputy assistant commissioner and critic of Sir Ian's management style, said yesterday: "This is a sad day for policing. Ian Blair was seen as a reformer, somebody who was pro-diversity, and he set out to take the Metropolitan Police in the direction it needed to go. He was unable to take others with him and was unable to deliver on those promises."

Further questions came with allegations that Sir Ian awarded contracts worth £165,000 to a company run by a close friend without proper scrutiny.

By the beginning of last month, the signs were clear that ministers, senior civil servants and leading officers were discussing arrangements for replacing Sir Ian by the end of the year. With the political wind against him, Sir Ian decided it was time to leave the stage.

Crime rate: Sir Ian Blair's reign

Officer numbers:

2005: 31,175

2008: 31,398

Murder:

2005: Offences committed 182; crimes solved 171 (94%)

2008: Offences committed 156; crimes solved 137 (87.8%)

Sexual Offences:

2005: Offences committed 10,864; crimes solved 3,754 (34.6%)

2008: Offences committed 8,766; crimes solved 2,418 (27.6%)

Assault (Grievous bodily harm, actual bodily harm and common assault):

2005: Offences committed 136,649; crimes solved 49,538 (36.6%)

2008: Offences committed 112,319; crimes solved 30,715 (27.3%)

Burglary:

2005: Offences committed 101,474; crimes solved 13,224 (13%)

2008: Offences committed 93,894; crimes solved 12,648 (13.5%)

Robbery:

2005: Offences committed 39,033; crimes solved 6,043 (15.5%)

2008: Offences committed 37,000; crimes solved 5,898 (15.9%)

Theft:

2005: Offences committed 412,264; crimes solved 39,703 (9.6%)

2008: Offences committed 332,156; crimes solved 38,490 (11.6%)

Total crimes:

2005: Offences committed 1,015,121; crimes solved 214,038 (21.1%)

2008: Offences committed 862,032; crimes solved 216,214 (25.1%)

Who will replace him? The contenders

Sir Paul Stephenson

As Sir Ian Blair's deputy, Sir Paul, 55, is thought the most likely candidate to succeed his boss. He is seen as a safe pair of hands and has maintained a relatively low profile since his appointment in 2005. Last month, he was forced to deny having a row with Sir Ian over their performance bonuses.

The only thing that might count against Sir Paul is if there is a desire to make a clean break from the Blair regime which presided over so much scandal.

Sir Hugh Orde

Sir Hugh, 50, the Northern Ireland chief constable, has long been a favourite to succeed Sir Ian. He has a reputation as a tough officer who doesn't suffer fools, and his similarity to Sir Ian's predecessor, Lord Stevens, is likely to make him the choice of the rank-and-file. However, Sir Hugh's reputation was slightly damaged last year when it emerged he had a long-term, extra-marital affair with a Met detective, and fathered her son.

Sir Norman Bettison

Terrorism is a key priority for the Met. Three of the four 7 July bombers were from Yorkshire and its police force, led by Sir Norman, has dealt with numerous such cases, which would serve him well in London. But like Sir Ian, Sir Norman, 52, has also been involved in controversy. His current force was criticised for its investigation into the disappearance of the schoolgirl Shannon Matthews earlier this year.

Bernard Hogan-Howe

The Chief Constable of Merseyside, 51, has had a wealth of good publicity for his no-nonsense approach to crime. His force recorded the country's largest fall in reported crime in 2007 and this year. In March, he criticised judges he felt were too lenient on gun crime. That could stand him in good stead for a stint in the capital, where offences involving weapons, particularly knives, are a major concern.