Covid: UK transmission R rate rises again
Increase comes as Sadiq Khan reveals one in 20 people have virus in parts of London
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Your support makes all the difference.The crucial reproduction number showing the rate of coronavirus transmission across the UK has risen again, new figures show.
The so-called R number has risen to between 1 and 1.4, the government revealed on Friday – a small increase on the figure of between 1.1 and 1.3 estimated in the week before Christmas.
It comes as London mayor Sadiq Khan said as many as one in 20 people now have Covid-19 in some parts of the capital. “Across London we face a situation where this virus is out of control,” he said.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics shows roughly one in 30 people in London had the virus over new year – but Mr Khan said the latest data showed infection levels were even higher in some hotspots in the city.
Declaring a major incident on Friday, Mr Khan said hospitals in London are “at risk of being overwhelmed” – with beds likely to run out within the next two weeks unless the spread of the virus slows dramatically.
Public health officials around the world view the R number as a vitally important measure in tracking the spread of the virus, with the clear goal to keep it below one. If R is greater than one the epidemic is growing, if R is less than one the epidemic is shrinking.
With the current R number between 1 and 1.4, it means that every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 14 other people.
The Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the estimates published on Friday represent the transmission of Covid over the past few weeks rather than the present situation. This is due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms, and needing healthcare.
Sage stated: “R is a lagging indicator and so these estimates cannot account for the impact of recent policy changes … This includes any changes that might have occurred over the festive period or the lockdown in England, announced on 5 January.”
As well as providing a R number for the UK, the government published regional breakdown for England showing the rate is 1 or above 1 in all parts of the country. It appears highest in the south west (between 1.1 and 1.5) and lowest in the north west (between 1 and 1.4).
Separately, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday that around eight in 10 recent positive Covid-19 cases in London and eastern England could be the new variant of the virus.
For England as a whole, the ONS estimated 61 per cent of new cases could be the new variant.
In an announcement made earlier this week, the ONS estimated that 1.1 million people in private households in England had Covid-19 between 27 December and 2 January – the equivalent of around one in 50 people.
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