Coronavirus: Scientists warn new restrictions ‘not enough’ to tackle Northern Ireland’s second wave

Scientists have warned that the new coronavirus restrictions set to be enforced across Northern Ireland may not be enough to combat the country’s emerging second wave.

Schools will be closed for two weeks as of Monday, while restaurants, pubs and bars face strict new measures from Friday evening that are expected to last for a month.

Northern Ireland has emerged as one of Europe’s main Covid-19 hotspots, having recorded a quarter of its total number of cases in the past week alone.

The health department reported a record amount of daily cases on Wednesday, with 1,217 new infections bringing the country’s seven-day rate to 356 cases per 100,000 people – one of the highest on the continent.

The new measures announced by Stormont are the strictest seen in the UK since the first peak of the pandemic – but scientists are not convinced they will go far enough in reversing the rising trends seen across Northern Ireland.

“The only goal that makes sense is to persist until elimination of community transmission is reached,” Helen Dolk, a professor of epidemiology at Ulster University, told The Independent.

“Four weeks will not be enough to reach this goal. If we persist longer, as countries such as Australia have done, we can look forward to reopening our economy without constant braking, and those most vulnerable to Covid can participate fully in society and family again.”

The new closures will affect the country’s entire hospitality sector, except takeaway and delivery services, and double the length of the October school break from one week to two.

Under the measures, retail will remain open, but “close contact services” such as hairdressers and beauticians will be closed.

People will be advised to avoid unnecessary travel and work from home, while universities will be asked to teach remotely as far as possible.

"We do not take this step lightly ... the Covid transmission rates must be turned down or we will be in a very difficult place very soon indeed," first minister Arlene Foster told Stormont on Wednesday.

Prof Dolk described the restrictions as “very necessary” but argued that the current approach adopted by Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK could fuel “a continual cycle of alternating periods of easing and tightening restrictions”.

This, she said, would be “impossible for business, impossible for healthcare, leads to confusion and fatigue, and ultimately runs away into the second wave we are embarking on now.”

She added that “acting now” would help to reduce the rising mortality rate and ease pressure on hospitals, while allowing “the all-important continuation of non-Covid health services”.

Gabriel Scally, a visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol and a member of the Independent Sage committee, said that the restrictions “are probably not enough”.

“The Northern Irish government was apparently advised to do much more,” he told The Independent. “In some parts of the country, the rates are huge. Derry has a rate of one case per 100 [people] at the moment which is just incredible." 

The city currently has a rate of nearly 1,000 cases per 100,000 people. Liverpool, England’s worst hit area, has a relative rate of 634 cases per 100,000 people. 

“It’s not going to be enough. One of the things I’ve been complaining about is that they don’t produce any meaningful data about how good their test and trace is.”

Unlike the Department of Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland’s Public Health Agency does not publish weekly data on how many people have come into close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid-19, how many of these contacts were reached, nor the turnaround times for testing.

Prof Scally added: “Will they use whatever degree of break they put on the virus as an opportunity to revamp the whole system? But we just don’t know how well it's doing in Northern Ireland as they don’t publish enough detailed data. It’s miserably poor.”

Dr Julian Tang, a professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said that a “circuit breaker” lockdown would only succeed in “flattening the curve” and lowering the R rate. He warned that society’s most vulnerable would remain at risk once the measures were lifted

“If the cases are rising too much, and you have this circuit break in position for two-four weeks, that R rate will come down," he told The Independent. 

"It will keep the virus away from people who are susceptible. But what do you do after that? If everyone goes Christmas shopping, it's going to surge and the virus will pick up the vulnerable again.

“So if you want to have these rolling circuit breakers [as the main strategy], it’ll prolong the pandemic because it reduces that rate of herd immunity essentially, so you have more people who are susceptible for longer.”

Along with the new restrictions, Northern Ireland’s government has announced it will also be re-establishing the Belfast Nightingale hospital to cope with the rising number of hospitalised Covid patients.

Stormont health minister Robin Swann said he had been reluctant to take the step but had been left with no alternative in the face of "rapidly escalating pressures" on all five of the region's health trusts.

The Nightingale hospital, which is located in Belfast City Hospital, was first stood down after the peak of the first wave of the pandemic passed.

Micheal Martin, the Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland, has meanwhile welcomed the additional measures announced by Northern Ireland. 

"The data coming out of the north is hugely worrying," he said. "We will continue to engage with the northern executive in the coming days to discuss the situation, and the need for continued north-south co-operation and co-ordination.

“As we have said before, the virus pays no heed to borders."