Congestion charge will cause chaos, Livingstone warned

Ken Livingstone's congestion-charging scheme for London faces chaos when it is launched in February, a report will warn today.

The report, from the London Assembly, forecasts that Tube and bus journeys will be longer and more uncomfortable and that thousands of drivers will use streets outside the city centre to dodge the £5 daily charge. "For those living on the edge of the charging zone this amounts to a 'double whammy' – more overcrowding on trains and a greater likelihood of 'rat-running' in local streets," the assembly's transport committee predicts.

While it backs the principle of the London Mayor's scheme, the committee says it fears the public transport system will be overloaded. Tube and rail services are already running near to capacity – and will become full with outer London commuters – and buses will have to take the bulk of extra demand when drivers leave cars at home.

"Additional rail and Underground passengers are expected to be those commuting from outer London; these passengers are expected to displace commuters currently taking shorter journeys to work," it says. "Inner Londoners will either wait longer to get on to Tube or train, or will start commuting by bus."

The assembly says 14,000 of the extra 20,000 public-transport passengers a day will travel by bus and that it has been reassured by the Mayor's Transport for London (TfL) body that the buses can cope with increased demand. But it adds: "It remains to be seen whether Londoners will view this as a credible alternative or will be frustrated by the continuing high level of crowding."

Charging should not be introduced until a "real improvement in the reliability and journey times" of most bus routes into central London has been made, it argues. "Londoners should not be compelled to use the bus system simply because they cannot board overcrowded trains."

With TfL forecasting that streets will experience a rise of up to 200 cars an hour as drivers try to divert around the zone, the assembly says only a quarter of the schemes designed to minimise "rat-running" will be in place by the time charging is introduced. Committee members say they remain concerned over the "complex and logistically difficult" technology handling the scheme.

Assembly members also criticise Mr Livingstone for declining to reveal how and when he will judge whether the scheme is a success, although he has spent £200m of taxpayers' money setting it up. "We find it astounding that a scheme, which will have a major impact on London, can be arbitrarily withdrawn without any published performance criteria by which it can be publicly judged," the report says.