Will Brexit affect asylum claims in the UK?

The refugee crisis played a significant role in the debate leading up to the EU referendum. Nigel Farage’s controversial “Breaking Point” poster of asylum seekers queueing on the Croatia-Slovenia border stoked immigration fears felt by many on the Leave side, and there is little doubt many will have voted to leave the EU in the belief that it would lead to fewer people coming to Britain to ask for asylum.

But the reality is quite different. In actual fact, there is strong reason to believe that leaving the EU is likely to result in a rise in refugees in the UK.

When Britain leaves the EU it will almost certainly withdraw from the bloc’s common European asylum system (CEAS). Within this system is the Dublin regulation, which allows countries to remove asylum seekers to the member state to which they arrived first. The UK currently makes around 600 such removals each year – but after withdrawing from the agreement this will no longer be possible.

In losing the ability to remove asylum seekers to the European country where they were first fingerprinted, Britain may in turn become a more desirable destination to refugees, who could be encouraged to cross the Channel in the knowledge that they will not be sent back.

The British government has said it is “ready to discuss” the nature of a future relationship between the UK and EU member states on establishing which country should process an asylum claim, but experts say it is difficult to see why the EU would be motivated to do so.

Aside from leaving the Dublin regulation, Brexit could also enable the UK to reduce the standards of reception, treatment and recognition of asylum seekers and refugees that it is obliged to adhere to under EU law – but lawyers say this is unlikely as many of these EU standards were set by the UK in the first place.

In essence, while Brexit may have seemed like an opportunity to better control the number of refugees coming to Britain, leaving the EU’s asylum system is – if anything – only likely to increase numbers.

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