Key constituency battles in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland is set for several tightly-fought constituency battles in the General Election.

Here, the PA news agency looks at some of the region’s key battlegrounds.

– Lagan Valley

Following the seismic political shock caused when former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was charged with historical sex offences, the unionist party is keen to avoid more upheaval by losing its hold on what was once its most secure seat in Northern Ireland.

Donaldson was the Lagan Valley MP for 27 years and the impact of the absence of his name on the ballot paper is yet to be tested. The DUP has gone for youth in selecting ambitious Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley in its bid to retain the seat he has described as a unionist stronghold.

Challenging that narrative is the Alliance Party’s Sorcha Eastwood, whose high-profile candidate has urged voters to “make history” by electing its first non-unionist MP. She was 6,500 votes behind Donaldson in the 2019 election and is confident a surge in support for the cross-community party has further eaten away at the DUP’s lead.

Robbie Butler from the Ulster Unionist Party has bridled against the notion that Lagan Valley is a two-horse race, insisting many former Donaldson voters will instead rally to him, ensuring that the constituency will be one of the most keenly-watched counts in Northern Ireland when the ballot boxes are opened.

– East Belfast

This constituency sees the very rare occurrence of two party leaders vying for the same parliamentary seat, with the DUP’s Gavin Robinson up against the Alliance Party’s Naomi Long.

Defeat for Mr Robinson, who succeeded Donaldson at the helm of the party in March, would surely raise questions about his fledgling leadership of the DUP while a loss for Ms Long would prompt some to ask whether the Alliance electoral surge of recent years has begun to subside.

Mr Robinson, who has defeated Ms Long in the last three general elections, is defending a 1,819 majority from 2019.

The campaign five years ago was framed by the impasse over the Brexit withdrawal and led to various other parties standing aside to assist either the pro-Remain Ms Long or the Brexit-supporting Mr Robinson. Only one other party stood back then – the Ulster Unionists. While Sinn Fein has once again opted out of the race in 2024, the SDLP, TUV and the Greens are taking part in what is a seven-strong field.

– Belfast South and Mid Down

Tactical voting in Northern Ireland’s most diverse constituency swept the SDLP’s Claire Hanna to Westminster with a huge majority of more than 15,000 over the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly in 2019’s “Brexit election”.

However, Belfast South has since been enlarged and renamed Belfast South and Mid Down. While Ms Hanna remains favourite to return as MP, the impact of boundary changes, a more crowded field and a transformed political landscape could see a more competitive battle this time around.

The DUP has returned to the grassroots by selecting Belfast City councillor Tracy Kelly as its candidate. She has highlighted her record of working in the community and the potential of an increased unionist vote from areas like Saintfield which are now part of the constituency.

The Alliance Party’s Kate Nicholl – an MLA and former Belfast lord mayor – has pointed to her party’s success in local council and Assembly elections as evidence that she can win, although the continued absence of a Sinn Fein candidate in the constituency is likely to be of more benefit to Ms Hanna.

– South Antrim

The Ulster Unionist Party is convinced that South Antrim represents its best opportunity of a return to the green benches at Westminster.

Robin Swann, whose profile soared when he led Northern Ireland’s fight against the Covid pandemic as health minister, is arguably the UUP’s most popular figure while Paul Girvan is arguably the lowest profile of all of the DUP’s outgoing MPs aiming to retain their seats in the election.

However, there is risk in the Ulster Unionist’s strategy. Mr Swann has vacated his ministerial role and moved constituencies to challenge Mr Girvan, who has strong local links and has represented the area at local council and Assembly level as well as at Westminster.

While most attention will focus on the unionist battle in a seat which has ping-ponged between the DUP and UUP over the years, both Sinn Fein’s Declan Kearney and the Alliance Party’s John Blair will be quietly confident they could benefit from a split unionist vote.

– Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Former Royal College of Nursing general secretary Pat Cullen is attempting to hold a seat for Sinn Fein in what is a perennially tight race in the UK’s most westerly constituency. Ms Cullen has succeeded long-standing Sinn Fein MP Michelle Gildernew as the party’s candidate after she switched focus south of the border in an ultimately unsuccessful bid to be elected to the European Parliament.

The constituency has been decided by fewer than 60 votes on three occasions since the turn of the century, with only four votes separating the leading contenders in 2010.

Ms Cullen’s main contender is local Ulster Unionist councillor Diana Armstrong, who is the daughter of another former party leader, the late Harry West.

In a constituency that so often comes down to fine margins, boundary changes that look to have slightly increased the proportion of nationalist voters have left Sinn Fein cautiously optimistic it can hold onto a seat it has occupied for 21 of the last 23 years.

– North Down

The three-way battle between the Alliance Party’s deputy leader, an independent unionist and an Iraq War hero has been one of the liveliest of the entire campaign in Northern Ireland.

Alliance candidate Stephen Farry won the seat in 2019 ahead of then DUP representative Alex Easton during an election dominated by the backdrop of the bitter Brexit withdrawal impasse.

Five years later, the same men are again seen as the two most likely winners, albeit this time Mr Easton is now running as an independent, with the backing of both the non-standing DUP and TUV.

However, retired Army colonel Tim Collins – known for a rousing pre-battle speech he made while serving in Iraq in 2003 – has done his level best to shake things up and has insisted he is well placed to take the seat for the Ulster Unionists.

– Foyle

SDLP leader Colum Eastwood is defending a whooping 17,000 majority in what has traditionally been his party’s citadel.

Mr Eastwood won the seat from Sinn Fein in 2019 during a period when the republican party was enduring internal strife and upheaval in Londonderry.

Sinn Fein initiated a major restructuring in Derry in the wake of that loss and its candidate – former mayor Sandra Duffy – is hoping to at least take a significant bite out of her rival’s majority.

The issue of representation is key in this contest, with Mr Eastwood making much of the fact that, unlike Sinn Fein, he takes his seat in the House of Commons. Ms Duffy has defended her party’s long-standing abstentionist policy, insisting Sinn Fein MPs have wielded influence at Westminster despite not taking their seats.