Met chief has little hope of holding on to his job, senior officer warns
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Sir Ian Blair, the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, has only a 20 per cent chance of remaining in his job, one of his most senior officers has predicted.
The country's leading police chief is expected to resign if he is severely criticised by two inquiries into the fatal shooting of a Brazilian man at Stockwell Tube station, the source said.
The Independent understands that within months, Sir Ian will be cleared of lying in his statements after the mistaken killing of 27-year-old Jean Charles de Menezes, but he will be criticised for not being properly informed. The Independent Police Complaints Commission will also censure him for trying to prevent an independent inquiry into the incident.
The senior officer said: "I would give the Commissioner no better than a 20 per cent chance of staying. I don't think he will be here this time at Christmas. He and his family are coming under increasing pressure from the media that is making him question whether it is worth staying on."
The source added: "He's losing the confidence of people around him and he's not maintaining control, although he does have loyal supporters. He doesn't think of the consequences and often ignores advice."
One of the most damaging controversies involving Sir Ian was the disclosure in March that he had secretly recorded a phone call with Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General.
The senior officer, who spoke under the condition of anonymity, said: "I thought he might resign over the taped telephone call. That has caused a lot of Met officers to start turning against him and saying that there is no future. Senior officers couldn't understand why he has made so many gaffes. The tape recording was an unthinking mistake."
But Sir Ian was in defiant mood yesterday and insisted he had the "overwhelming support" of his officers.
He declared: "I am going on, the Commissioner is going on. Sometimes I make mistakes. I learn on the job, everybody does. I have a huge amount of support from people around me. The Met is doing extremely well."
Sir Ian came under fresh pressure this week when the leader of the Met's 24,000 constables claimed the rank and file no longer had confidence in their boss.
Supporters of Sir Ian believe he has weathered the storm and will continue in his £230,000 post unless he is hit by a set of fresh controversies. The Home Office, Metropolitan Police Authority and the London Mayor have given their backing to Sir Ian, arguing that he has overseen a drop in crime since he came to the job in February 2005.
Many in the Met believe Sir Ian has become the victim of a hate campaign by the right-wing press which despises his intellect and liberal leanings.
But a second police source said the senior team of officers and managers around Sir Ian were in "disarray", adding: "Everyone is looking out for themselves. If he sticks it out, the word is there will be a lot of changes and people who have been disloyal will be moved. I expect a blood bath."
The Met is bracing itself for the results of an inquiry into the Stockwell shooting and a second into what information was disclosed after the incident.
Mr Menezes was shot seven times in the head by anti-terror officers after being mistaken for a suicide bomber the day after the attempted July 21 bomb attacks in London last year.
At 3.30pm on 22 July, five hours after the shooting, Sir Ian made an appeal over four photographs of suspected failed bombers and announced that a man "directly linked" to terrorist operations had been killed.
Sir Ian has been accused by the dead man's family of knowing that Mr Menezes was innocent when he made that statement. A month after the shooting, Sir Ian said: "At that time - and for the next 24 hours - I and everybody who advised me believed the person who was shot was a suicide bomber."
The IPCC, which is investigating matter, is understood to have concluded that Sir Ian genuinely believed that a terrorist suspect had been shot when he made the appeal.
But the commission is understood to criticise the head of the Met for not being better informed and questions whether some officers either knew or suspected they had shot dead an innocent person in the hours after the incident.
One of the police officers involved in the operation is believed to have argued that he could not be 100 per cent certain until DNA of the victim was checked, which was why Sir Ian was not informed until 10.30am the day after the shooting.
The commission will also attack Sir Ian for attempting to have the shooting investigated by his own staff rather than the IPCC.
No one is expected to be charged by the Crown Prosecution Service over the shooting, although a Special Branch surveillance officer who is accused of doctoring his notes after the incident is likely to face disciplinary action.
Errors of judgement
* Widely criticised for trying to have his own officers investigate the killing of Mr Menezes rather than the Independent Police Complaints Commission.
* The police watchdog is investigating claims that he issued misleading statements and said the victim had terrorist links.
* In January he had to apologise to the parents of the Soham murder victims Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman after questioning why the case attracted so much attention.
* In March, he apologised for secretly recording phone calls to Attorney General Lord Goldsmith.
* Weeks later, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Brian Paddick reportedly contradicted Sir Ian's account of the aftermath of the Stockwell shooting.
* On Tuesday, the leader of 24,000 Met constables claimed they had no confidence in Sir Ian.