Jail population to top 100,000
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The Government will admit next week that Britain's jail population is expected to rise above 100,000 for the first time in history.
The number of people serving prison sentences over the next decade will increase by almost 40 per cent, putting an intolerable burden on already over-crowded jails.
The findings are expected to be published this Thursday by the Prison Service and are based on an official forecast of prison numbers from Home Office experts and the Office for National Statistics.
The figures are expected to further embarrass a Government already under pressure to reduce the prison population, which has now reached nearly 73,000.
Ministers have already pledged to build two new jails. But the Probation Service said yesterday an extra 30 jails would be needed at an estimated cost of £2bn – money, it says, that would be better spent on education and health.
The crisis of prison overcrowding has forced the Prison Service to hold up to 500 prisoners a night in police cells and to increase the number of prisoners in jail cells.
Last month, Lord Woolf, the Lord Chief Justice said that jail overcrowding was a "cancer" at the heart of the prison system. David Blunkett, the Home Secretary, has called on magistrates to stop handing out short custodial sentences for minor offences, but under new criminal justice reforms, the maximum prison sentence handed down by magistrates will increase from six to 12 months.
Earlier this month, Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, said he planned to increase the number of prison places. However, prison reformers have accused the Government of sending out conflicting messages about jailing offenders.
The National Association of Probation Officers warned earlier this year that the prison population could rise to 90,000 by 2006. Harry Fletcher, NAPO spokesman, said this figure would increase by at least 10,000 under new Home Office criminal justice reforms.
"If the pot [of money] does not grow massively then an increase in prison numbers is going to be at the expense of health and education," he said.
Colin Moses, chairman of the Prison Officers' Association, warned that jailing people without investment was "a recipe for disaster".
"There must be serious investment – if you carry on at this rate you can't keep people in prison on the cheap," said Mr Moses, who next month will hold crisis talks with Home Office ministers on overcrowding.
Frances Crook, director of prison reform charity the Howard League, said jail did not stop crime.
"One prisoner is equal to two firefighters – this is the kind of choice we are going to have to make and what we all know is that prisons don't stop crime," she said.