'Good news' statistics that turned into a PR disaster
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Ministers attempted to defend the Government's record on crime yesterday as new figures showed an increase in recorded homicides, domestic burglaries and violence against the person.
The Home Office published crime statistics to September 2002 that revealed recorded offences had gone up by 2 per cent during the previous 12 months. The findings, released alongside figures showing a 35 per cent rise in gun crime during 2001-02, will add to growing public fears over the deterioration of law and order in England and Wales.
John Denham, the minister responsible for crime reduction, said he was concerned that 858 deaths in 2001-02 were recorded as homicides – up from 735 in 1997 – and that the number of male victims of fatal shootings went up by 41 per cent. But the Home Office said crime in England and Wales was being maintained at a "stable" level.
The Home Office simultaneously published data from the British Crime Survey (BCS), based on interviews with the public, which foundcrime had fallen by 7 per cent in the 12 months to September 2002. The BCS identified falls in violent crime (2 per cent), domestic burglary (7 per cent), and vehicle theft (14 per cent).
Mr Denham said: "The British Crime Survey shows that crime has been falling since 1997 and the risk of being a victim is very low – around the same as in 1981."
The public is deeply confused after being bombarded with media coverage of horrific shootings, muggings and sex crimes. According to the BCS, the proportion of people thinking crime had "increased a lot" in the past two years rose from 25 per cent in 2001 to 35 per cent last year.
The percentage who thought crime had increased "a little" also went up, from 31 per cent to 34 per cent. Public fears of specific crimes, including burglary, vehicle theft and violence against the person all slightly declined.
Ministers believe they have a good story to tell, with crime having been reduced by 27 per cent since the BCS of 1997, when Labour came to power.
But the recorded figures suggest crime is merely being held in check at levels which large sections of the public find unacceptable.
Quarterly statistics to September 2002 showed a 28 per cent increase in violence against the person, a 26 per cent increase in sexual offences, a 3.2 per cent rise in domestic burglaries and a 1.5 per cent upturn in thefts of or from vehicles. Over the 12-month period to September 2002, violence against the person was up by 19 per cent, robbery by 14.5 per cent, domestic burglary by 7.9 per cent, vehicle-related theft by 4 per cent and overall crime by 9.3 per cent.
Paul Wiles, the Home Office's chief statistician, said that much of the rise in recorded crime could be explained by the ongoing effect of changes in the way police keep statistics.
Under the new National Crime Recording Standard, which is designed to show an even picture of crime across England and Wales, police are recording a greater number of incidents as crimes.
Peter Hampson, Chief Constable of West Mercia, said a fight captured on CCTV would be recorded as an assault even if no victim had been identified and there was no prospect of a prosecution.
Public confidence in the police declined. The proportion saying the police did a "very or fairly good job" fell from 78 per cent to 75 per cent. Black and Chinese people were more likely to think they did a good job.