Blair opened UK borders to east European migrants despite misgivings

Tony Blair’s Labour government pressed ahead with plans to grant unrestricted access to the UK to migrants from eastern Europe despite mounting concerns among senior ministers, according to newly-released official files.

Papers released to National Archives in Kew, west London, show deputy prime minister John Prescott and foreign secretary Jack Straw both urged delay, warning of a surge in immigration unless some controls were put in place.

But others – including home secretary David Blunkett – argued that the economy needed the “flexibility and productivity of migrant labour” if it was to continue to prosper.

The Home Office had predicted the impact on immigration numbers of allowing unrestricted access to the UK jobs market when the eight mainly former Soviet bloc states joined the EU in May 2004 would be relatively limited.

But within weeks the files show the numbers arriving were far outstripping previous estimates, with one official saying they faced an “elephant trap” and advising ministers to “err on the side of publishing less rather than more” when it came to releasing official data.

Mr Straw later admitted that the failure to put in place any transitional controls – as nearly all other EU nations had done – had been a “spectacular mistake” which had far-reaching consequences.

It was widely seen as having contributed to a major increase in immigration in the years that followed – with net migration rising to more than 200,000 a year – with cheap labour from Poland and other new member states blamed for undercutting local workers.

With successive governments struggling to get the numbers back under control, it helped fuel the anti-EU sentiment which ultimately led to the 2016 Brexit vote.

When the Labour government announced in 2002 that immigrants from the “A8” accession nations would be free to come to Britain to work from the moment they joined on May 1 2004, it had been expected that other member states would follow suit.

However, with less than three months to go, Mr Straw wrote to Mr Blair calling for a rethink, warning that the situation had changed dramatically in the intervening period.

“If we do not think this through now, I believe we could be faced with a very difficult situation in early May, and could then be forced to take urgent action to suspend the concessions, in the least propitious of circumstances,” he wrote.

“In particular, whilst some EU member states were never going to give this concession, other EU member states who we thought would be joining us have begun to peel away.

“France, Germany, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece and Luxembourg are all imposing transition periods of at least two years. Portugal is likely to follow suit.

“Italy is undecided. Sweden, Netherlands and Denmark – who were with us – have all announced the introduction of work and/or residence permits for those wishing to avail themselves of the concession.”

He was backed by Mr Prescott who said he was “extremely concerned” about the pressures on social housing from a sudden influx of new migrants.

However Mr Blunkett, backed by work and pensions secretary Andrew Smith and the Treasury, insisted they should stick with the plan.

“On purely technical, economic grounds there can be no doubt that our present policy is the right one,” he wrote.

“Our economy needs the flexibility and productivity of migrant labour which is a key part of our continued economic success.”

He said that they would be tightening the regulations to stop migrants travelling to the UK simply to claim benefits but rejected calls for a work permit scheme as “not only expensive and bureaucratic but I believe ineffective”.

“I fear we would only be storing up more deep-seated political difficulties in the very near future and closer to the general election. The ineffectiveness of any scheme would be quickly exposed,” he said.

Mr Blair, it appeared, was beginning to have his doubts, questioning whether tougher benefit rules on their own would be enough.

“Are we sure this does the trick? I don’t want to have to return to it,” he said in a handwritten note.

“I am not sure we shouldn’t have a work permits approach also. Why not? It gives us an extra string to our bow.”

A warning of a possible influx of Roma people from Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia seeking to claim UK benefits only added to his concerns about the need to send out a deterrent “message”.

“We must do the toughest package on benefits possible & announce this plus power to revoke visa plan and message to Romas,” he scrawled in a handwritten aside.

Following the accession of the eight, the government sought to maintain all was going to plan – with Mr Blunkett stating “the predicted dramatic increase of new arrivals has not materialised”.

Behind the scenes however, officials warned that a Home Office forecast that it would lead a net increase of no more than 13,000 workers a year was way off course.

In July 2004 Kate Gross, a senior No 10 adviser on immigration, wrote: “Our approach has been to err on the side of publishing less rather than more, and to tell a clear and simple story.

“The key elephant trap is how these figures relate to previous HO projections of the impact of EU FMOW (free movement of workers).

“In practice, the actual number of new arrivals since May 1 is only 9,000. But at the current rate of increase this number will exceed the 13,000 prediction by the end of August, and if applications continue at the current rate would hit 50-60,000 new arrivals by May 2005.”