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Still strong concern that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, says Wallace

As the military build up continues, No 10 says there remains a ‘window for diplomacy’ to resolve the crisis and avert war.

Gavin Cordon
Monday 21 February 2022 12:08 EST
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (Aaron Chown/PA)
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (Aaron Chown/PA) (PA Wire)

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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said there is still “strong cause for concern” that Vladimir Putin remains committed to an invasion of Ukraine, despite diplomatic moves to end the crisis.

In a Commons statement, Mr Wallace said Russian forces were continuing to move towards the border zone contrary to repeated assurances given by Moscow.

“These are not the actions of a Russian government fulfilling its repeatedly declarations that it has no intention of invading Ukraine,” he told MPs.

“We have seen over the last few weeks the Russian playbook being implemented in a way that gives us strong cause for concern that President Putin is still committed to an invasion.

“I believe he is in danger of setting himself on a tragic course of events leading to a humanitarian crisis, instability and widespread suffering, not just of Ukrainians but also of the Russian people.”

Earlier, Downing Street said intelligence reports suggested the Russian plan “has in effect already begun” and that it was “starting to play out in real time”.

Nevertheless the Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said there was still a “window for diplomacy” after it appeared that a tentative agreement had been reached on a crisis summit between Mr Putin and US president Joe Biden.

Following a series of lengthy calls involving French president Emmanuel Macron, the White House said talks could go ahead provided there had been no invasion.

However Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said later that while the two leaders could meet if they considered it necessary, no plans for a summit had been agreed.

“It’s premature to talk about specific plans for a summit. The meeting is possible if the leaders consider it feasible,” he said.

Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, said it is still too early to say whether a meeting would take place.

He told the PA news agency it would be a “good result” if sufficient progress was made in talks to allow the summit to go ahead.

But he said the West is “not very interested in resolving the core question, the issue of the enlargement of Nato, the open door policy”.

Mr Wallace told MPs that Russia now has more than 110 battalion tactical groups massed around Ukraine’s border while the Black Sea fleet included two amphibious groups and nine cruise missile-equipped ships with a further four cruise missile-capable vessels in the Caspian.

At the same time there had been “a proliferation of false flag operations and propaganda stunts and Russian news outlets carrying fictitious allegations”.

Western officials described the situation as “grim”, with around two thirds of the Russian force within 50km of the border, and half of those being “tactically deployed” having moved out of their staging areas.

One official said it represented a move “from being postured for military operations to being poised for military operations”.

Officials also suggested there were signs of deep misgivings within the Russian military establishment about Mr Putin’s actions.

“Reportedly there are elements within the military and security services who harbour very serious doubts about the plan to invade and its tactical and strategic wisdom to put it mildly,” one said.

We are seeing elements of the Russian playbook... starting to play out in real time

No 10 spokesman

Mr Johnson’s spokesman said: “Intelligence we are seeing suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion and President Putin’s plan has in effect already begun.

“We are seeing elements of the Russian playbook we would expect to see in those situations starting to play out in real time.

“Crucially we still think there is a window for diplomacy. I think that is what we have seen in discussions over the weekend and we want to explore those.”

Further discussions are expected to take place on Thursday between US secretary of state Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

Mr Macron’s office said the Russian and US presidents had both “accepted the principle” of a summit, adding that the meetings “can only be held on the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine”.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the US is “committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins”, but noted that “currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon”.

Russia and its ally Belarus said they are extending war games on Belarusian territory, which would offer a convenient staging post on Ukrainian capital Kyiv, less than 50 miles south of the border with Belarus.

Heavy shelling in Ukraine continued on Monday amid the heightened tension between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatist rebels in the Donbas region.

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