Tory tries the woolly pully way to power

OF SEVERAL remarkable features of this week's Winchester by-election, the most striking is the transformation of Gerry Malone, the Conservative ex-minister defeated in May by two votes.

Once a jowly, straight-talking Scottish Thatcherite, Mr Malone has lost two stone and swapped his suit and tie for creased trousers and a blue sweater. Chastened by the election defeat he is now a listening politician in what Michael Portillo last week described as an example of the party's post-election "change and atonement".

That, at least, is the theory. As sweatshirt-wearing campaigners fanned out through a middle-class housing estate to the north of the city last week, Mr Portillo himself was looking a little over-dressed in black trousers, green sports jacket and tie. Naturally, as a good politician he had an answer: "These are jeans, you know," he said.

Mr Malone, meanwhile, was battling with his nice-guy image. Warned by one party worker not to approach a house sporting a Liberal Democrat poster, Mr Malone retorted: "Let's go and wind them up." Cuddly Conservatism Malone- style was, he conceded, rather like the "cuddle of an octopus".

The story of Winchester at the general election has already gone into the history books. It was the contest which produced the longest count and the smallest majority and was followed by a disputed verdict which went to court. Mr Malone argued that 55 ballot papers declared invalid because they were unfranked would have given him a majority. A re-run was ordered.

Thursday's contest will be a crucial test of Conservative recovery under William Hague in an area which ought to be natural Tory territory. For the Liberal Democrats it is vital to show that they can continue the momentum of the summer.

But first and foremost it is a personal battle, the culmination of almost a year's campaigning and an emotional rollercoaster. In the back of the minds of the candidates is that knife-edge majority. As Mark Oaten, the (sharp-suited) Liberal Democrat candidate, put it: "When you are canvassing on a cold night and you see a remote house and are tempted to give it a miss, your mind goes back to that night."

When he was elected in May, Mr Oaten resigned his job as managing director of a public relations consultancy. Mr Malone, of course, lost his job at the election. While relations are civil, there is little love lost.

The Lib Dems are well ahead in Winchester city, but that represents only 40 per cent of the constituency, and the rural areas have pockets of solid Conservatism. The Conservatives' best hope is try to hang on to the 26,000 votes they polled in May and to encourage some of those who stayed at home to come out. Given the likely reduced turnout for a by-election the Lib Dems concede that a full Tory turnout would return Mr Malone to Westminster.

With the desire to boot out the Tory government gone, and its successor in trouble on sleaze, the picture ought to be different. The voters remain, however, reluctant to forgive and forget. One retired couple in Courtney Road last week described themselves as solid Conservative before adding: "But we're surrounded - so we keep quiet about it."

And Mr Malone, an ex-health minister, concedes he has not always been his own best advocate. Sitting in a cramped office above a city centre shop he said: "I never thought I was covered with barbed wire, but there's no point me saying 'no, I wasn't distant, no, I wasn't aggressive' if that was people's perception. We have to approach these things in a different way."

He has counter-attacked against the charge of aloofness, targeting Mr Oaten's lack of parliamentary prowess - he has spoken only twice. Stung by this, Mr Oaten last week produced a leaflet with a picture of him speaking in the Commons. But his pitch is that he is doing the job a different way, taking up issues directly with ministers and experiencing real life in Winchester; instead of mingling with parliamentarians in the Strangers Bar he has spent a day with the dustmen, an evening with the police and a shift behind the counter at McDonalds.

For the Lib Dems there are some unwelcome distractions, including deliberately confusing competition from a man named Richard Huggett who stood last time as a Liberal Democrat Top Choice for Parliament, winning 640 votes, and will run this time as "Literal Democrat".

But the Lib Dems have a powerful card. Although careful not to articulate it themselves, their unofficial campaign slogan is: "When the umpire gives you out, you should walk." On the doorstep in Stanmore estate, a solid Lib Dem area, there is some evidence of success. Vivian Day is unimpressed by Mr Malone's "ridiculous" decision to contest the outcome, damning him as a "bad loser".

Apart from concentrating on their core voters the parties have others in their sights because, with two votes in it, anything could swing it. Both parties have tried to woo the green vote. The Tories have targeted supporters of the Referendum and UK Independence parties, which polled around 2,000 votes. Hence the deployment on Monday of Sir George Gardiner, who campaigned for the Referendum Party in May (although the effect was slightly spoiled by the arrival of pro-Europeans Sir George Young on the same day and Kenneth Clarke on Wednesday).

Lib Dem hopes that Labour's voters will vote tactically for Mr Oaten have not been encouraged by Tony Blair's candidate, Patrick Davies. His latest newsletter to supporters argues that the Lib Dems are certain to win (that is, there is no danger of Mr Malone returning) and hence Labour supporters should prevent Lib Dems building up a commanding local position.

Given the narrowness of May's result, few neutrals will venture such a prediction. The most talked about indicator emerged from the Horse and Groom pub in New Alresford, visited last week by Mr Clarke. With rival rosettes placed on three beer pumps the landlord has been keeping a tally of customers' choice. To the ex-Chancellor's embarrassment the findings last week put the Lib Dems first on 41.74 per cent, Conservatives on 39.02 per cent and Labour on12.24 per cent.

And the verdict on touchy-feely man-of-the people Conservatism? The best vignette unfolded at platform 1 of Winchester station as John Maples, Conservative health spokesman, bumped into his Lib Dem counterpart, Simon Hughes. Both were heading to London after campaigning but their conversation was cut short when the train arrived as Mr Maples made for the first class compartment.

General election: M Oaten (Lib Dem) 26,100, G Malone (Con) 26,098, P Davies (Lab) 6,528, P Strand (Ref) 1,598, R Huggett (Lib Dem Top Choice) 640, D Rumsey (UKIP) 476, P Stockton (Loony) 307, J Browne (Ind AFE) 307.