South African Elections: Party of the apartheid age near to extinction

THE AFRICAN National Congress's landslide victory has sounded the death knell of the old ruling party of apartheid and signalled a lethal splintering of opposition politics in South Africa.

The New National Party (NNP) suffered electoral disaster both in the national and provincial elections, even losing its Western Cape stronghold to the ANC.

Nationally, the white-led Democratic Party (DP) became the second force with a 10 per cent score, up from 1.7 per cent in 1994.

For the DP it was a triumph and its leader, Tony Leon, can now term himself official head of the opposition. But the DP did not match the National Party's 1994 score of 20.5 per cent and, to have a voice, it must enter into some form of opposition alliance.

Even then, it is President Nelson Mandela's description of the 15 opposition groupings standing against the ANC in the national vote which springs to mind: "Mickey Mouse parties."

Their failure to impress voters with their largely reactionary policies - to bring back the death penalty, ban abortion, split up South Africa and even introduce mutilation for thieves - is a further sign of the pragmatism of the electorate.

In mid-economic crisis, with unemployment standing at 40 per cent and growth nil, voters have nevertheless decided that the ANC is the only party with policies to suit most people.

Political analysts are now certain that a real political opposition will emerge in South Africa only when the country is a seasoned democracy, at which time it will be the result of a split in the ANC.

Both provincially and nationally, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) of the home affairs minister, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, has lost ground. In 1994, it scored 10.5 per cent of the vote against 8 per cent this time.

In the populous KwaZulu-Natal province which, until now, the IFP has dominated in all but urban areas, the ANC had the upper hand when nearly 70 per cent of votes had been counted yesterday.

Even though violence between ANC and IFP supporters in KwaZulu-Natal has claimed up to 15,000 lives in the past 20 years, the two foes seem in many respects to have come to an accommodation. As a result, the IFP's election score seems less of a crushing defeat than that of the NNP in the Western Cape.

Although demographic and racial voter breakdowns are not available, what appears clear is that the NNP's until-now faithful coloured (mixed- race) voters have deserted it in droves, especially in the Western Cape. Their desertion is probably the most promising sign in this election of a move to multi-racial politics.

The old apartheid regime and, lately the NNP, always painted the ANC as pro-black and uninterested in the concerns of the mixed-race people living on the poor Cape Flats.

Clearly, the people of the Western Cape have credited the ruling party, rather than their provincial, NNP-led government, with the house-building and electrification schemes they are enjoying.

"It's very disappointing for them," said F W De Klerk, who resigned from politics and the National Party leadership in 1997. "I don't think it is the end of the National Party. With a core of good people, it can now make a fresh start."

But his 39-year-old successor, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, whose youthful looks have won him the unfortunate nickname "kortbroek" or "short pants", has seen NNP support dive since he took over.

"The National Party is flirting with extinction," said Richard Calland, political analyst with the Institute for a Democratic Alternative in South Africa.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the move towards the ANC could signal a positive shift away from attempts to tribalise politics. In the past, the IFP sometimes portrayed itself as the champion of the Zulus against an ANC which was Xhosa-controlled.

The one opposition party with a multi-racial profile, the six-month-old United Democratic Movement, achieved a surprisingly even score of a minimum 3 per cent nationally and provincially. Even though this gives the party only 12 seats, it is a noteworthy score for such a new grouping, which fought the election without the state funding received by established parties.