Serb attack may be Bosnia's final battle: Large numbers of refugees reported to be fleeing area as huge force starts strategic action

THE END-GAME in the Bosnian civil war may have begun yesterday as the Bosnian Serb army launched a counter-offensive just as the Muslims thought they were about to win the battle for the Maglaj area.

The attack appears to have been precipitated by talk of splitting Bosnia into three zones, and was timed to accomplish strategic objectives before more United Nations troops are deployed to secure Muslim 'safe areas'.

The UN wants the troops in by August; they may arrive too late. The timing of the Serbian move was dictated by Monday's mist and heavy rain, providing cover for the Serbs to move up one of the largest forces seen in this insubstantial but bloody war.

There were few details yesterday but fighting was clearly heavy. On Monday, the local Bosnian army commander jubilantly reported successes in Zepce, south of Maglaj. Yesterday morning, however, his voice quivered as he spoke of casualties and large numbers of refugees fleeing the area.

The Serbs aim to split what is left of independent, predominantly Muslim Bosnia into three pockets: Bihac, Tuzla, where there could soon be a million refugees, and Zenica.

By the standard of most wars, the reported Serbian force of seven tanks, which would suggest a supporting force of perhaps 300 infantry plus artillery, is not large. Yesterday those tanks were reported to be attacking in the Novi Seher area, north of Zepce, which the Muslim-led Bosnian army has held throughout the war. Maglaj, Zepce and Zavidovici all came under heavy Serbian artillery fire.

Bosnian government forces have been fighting Croatian forces in the area, and this has helped the Serbian attack. It also looks as if the Serbs have done a deal with the Croats and so are, in effect, supporting each other against the Muslims.

Zagreb television disputed the Muslim claim to have captured Zepce, and said Muslim fighters in the area were surrendering in droves to Croatian forces.

Two days ago the Bosnian army was still confident. The commander of its 3rd corps, Enver Hadjihasanovic, said that Zepce 'will be free very soon' and that Maglaj 'will be free soon - in a few days'. The feeling in the British camp was that the Bosnian forces were getting the upper hand. In Tuzla, they had repelled tank attacks with small arms, holding fire until the last moment to save ammunition. It was thought unlikely the 'Maglaj finger' could be cut off.

Yesterday morning all that changed. The Bosnian commander was clearly shaken, with reports of the attack near Novi Seher, a massacre near by, and thousands of refugees.

On the political front, Bosnia's presidency yesterday agreed to work out a new proposal for the republic's future but its members appeared still divided on a plan for ethnic mini- states. After a two-hour meeting in Sarajevo a statement said three of the presidency's nine members - a Muslim, a Serb and a Croat - had been assigned to draw up a new constitutional document.

Ejup Ganic, the Muslim Vice-President of Bosnia, said: 'We have to find a solution that will keep the country together.'