Scientists predict CJD deaths for 30 years
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.New scientific forecasts suggest the true figure for those dying of the "new variant" of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (v-CJD) - the human form of "mad cow" disease, or BSE - will probably lie between 1,000 and 10,000, and may be spread over the next 30 years.
But Peter Smith, a member of Seac, the Government's advisory body on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and CJD, and also one of the authors of the new research, said yesterday that it could take up to four years before a clear picture emerges of precisely how many people will be affected. "But the longer the numbers of cases arising remains small, then the sooner we can rule out the worst case [scenario]," he said.
Recent data from the CJD Surveillance Unit, where two of the research authors work, suggested that the number of "suspected" cases of v-CJD was not large, he added. "The signs are encouraging, but it's too soon to be enormously encouraged."
Hours before the research was released yesterday, the Government said that it would more than double the funding for research into BSE and CJD over the next three years, providing an extra pounds 17m of new funding in the science budget, to raise the three-year funding to pounds 30m. Departmental sources insisted last night that the timing was accidental.
The paper is based on data gathered from the 14 confirmed victims of v-CJD in the UK, and its forecasts investigate incubation periods of between 10 and 25 years.
Details of some of the findings, including the forecast of a total death toll of hundreds of people, were revealed by The Independent in November, after an earlier version of the paper had been sent to the The Lancet, where it was rejected. Richard Horton, the medical journal's editor, declined to say why.
A revised version is published today in the science journal Nature. "It has been rigorously peer-reviewed, just like any other paper," said Nick Short, Nature's biological sciences editor.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments