Blood test predicts how likely you are to have a heart attack in next five years

A simple blood test could help to determine whether a patient is likely to suffer from coronary heart disease in the next five years, new research has shown.

Scientists have discovered that patients with high levels of the immunoglobin G (IgG) antibody were less likely to suffer from cardiovascular disease, including stroke and heart attack, than those with lower levels, even when taking into account factors such as high blood pressure and cholesterol.

The scientists said that although much effort is devoted to identifying high-risk patients, “better and affordable tools to predict cardiovascular risk are still needed to avoid misclassification of ‘high risk’ patients and resultant over- or under-treatment.”

One told The Independent: "If we can be better at selecting the right patients who need close monitoring and preventative therapies, we will for sure prevent heart disease leading to heart attacks.”

The main cause of cardiovascular disease and heart attack is atherosclerosis – the build-up of fatty deposits on the artery walls that can restrict blood flow to and from the heart.

Though immunoglobin levels are not generally considered to be relevant to cardiovascular disease risk, there is evidence that certain types could reduce the risk of atherosclerosis occurring and that other types may increase risk.

The most recent study monitored 1,753 subjects for around five years, and found that those with the highest levels of IgG were 58 per cent less likely to suffer from a heart attack, while 38 per cent were less likely to suffer from a stroke or other cardiovascular event.

Heart disease is the most common cause of death in the UK, killing one in five men and one in seven women, and costs the NHS around £4 billion per year.

Blood tests could be a cheap and easy way of identifying patients with a high risk of cardiovascular disease, and helping them to receive treatment before their condition worsens.

The test could also identify low-risk patients and prevent resources being wasted on providing treatments that the patient may not need.

Dr Ramzi Khamis of the National Heart and Lung Institute, who led the study, said that the test could help diagnose high-risk patients more efficiently and with more accuracy than can be achieved using current methods.

“This test, once confirmed in other studies as well, will significantly improve cardiac risk stratification," he told The Independent.

“As the current ways of determining risk are quite inaccurate, this means that more patients will be classified appropriately either at risk or not.

“Therefore, hopefully fewer patients will be on treatment inappropriately and more patients who were missed in the past will be on appropriate treatment and monitoring.”

Dr Khamis also said he hopes his findings may help to reduce deaths from heart attacks. He said: “If we can be better at selecting the right patients who need close monitoring and preventative therapies, we will for sure prevent heart disease leading to heart attacks.”

Currently there is no conclusive research suggesting there are lifestyle factors that might increase or decrease an individual’s IgG levels. Although there is some evidence that diet may be a factor, this is in need of more exploration before a conclusion can be made.