Rallying the troops for the ultimate test: Blair sets sights on wider audience

Labour - Blackpool; 30 September-4 October.

Slogan: New Labour, New Life for Britain.

The big aim: To win endorsement for the draft manifesto, New Labour, New Life for Britain. Once the conference has agreed to the document, it will go out for one-member, one-vote blessing by the party membership. But the conference will be addressing a wider audience - the electorate at large - and much time will therefore be spent selling the five core pledges on education, crime, health, unemployment and the economy.

Who are these people? While the serried ranks of union barons retain all the fluidity of quick-set concrete, there has been significant change in the power and personality of constituency delegates.

Last year, the constituencies accounted for only 30 per cent of conference voting strength. This year, an increase in membership has triggered an increase in constituency power, to give grass-roots delegates a 50-50 share of votes with the unions. But new rules have brought a noticeable influx of people who would not wish to spend one week every October attacking the treachery and betrayal of socialism by Labour leaders.

Stage management: Last year's conference was marked by the total absence of defeat for the leadership, but party sources are unsure of their ability to pull off such a coup again. Their pessimism has been increased by the confrontation between the party and union leaderships - who have the undoubted power to make mischief.

Disaster zones: A leadership source recently told The Independent that the party was in the business of turning every crisis into an opportunity. Thus the repeated rifts with the unions during Blackpool's Trades Union Congress, were used to show that Labour was no longer in the unions' pockets. Equally, conference defeats could be turned to show that the leadership was standing firm against spending commitments that might smack of tax increases.

But there is a risk - that splits could dominate the media coverage to the point at which Labour disunity turns voters off. Danger points include the possibility of a repudiation of the leadership decision to dump an uprating of pensions in line with earnings; a demand for a figure on the minimum wage; and a revolt against Gordon Brown's child benefit plans.

Policy initiatives: Labour is saturated with policy, and the greatest problem is refining it to a point where it becomes digestible - which is the purpose of the New Life document.

Low-life: Trade union bashes and regional party functions, like Welsh night, are very popular and therefore hard to gate-crash. Certainly, the beer flows in greater quantities at Labour conferences, though Liberal Democrats tend to stay up later.

Highlights: The big set-piece Blair speech will take place first thing on Tuesday afternoon, and the thing to watch out for is the way in which the party tries to damp down any sign of over-confidence. Party strategists and Mr Blair himself do not believe election victory is by any means in the bag. But how does a man with a 20-point lead in the polls paint himself as underdog? The way in which Mr Blair tempers his natural enthusiasm with modesty should be a trick worth watching out for.