Peru's hot, Turkey's cold as fashion for holidays grows ever more fickle

THERE WAS a time when the Greek islands or Turkey seemed adventurous, even exotic, destinations for the summer holiday. That is no longer the case.

Aided by low air fares, Britain's holidaymakers are expanding their horizons when it comes to getting away for a week or two.

Istanbul? Done it. Tuscany? Passe. The Algarve? Excuse me. This year holidaymakers, if of course they can afford it, are more likely to setting off for South Africa or even Peru.

As the summer rush begins today with the start of the school holidays, the travel industry is reporting sharp divergences from usual tourism trends. Among the losers are Greece and Turkey, while the winners of the fiercely competitive battle for market share include South America, South Africa and even the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

In the next six weeks, around 2.8 million British holidaymakers will jet off to the sun on organised packages, with millions more making independent arrangements for foreign trips. There had been fears in the travel industry that the end of European Union duty-free sales would depress the market. But tourism officials representing our traditional favourite destinations, France, Spain and Italy, report buoyant interest. New cut-price flights to each of these countries are filling up fast, suggesting a trend towards more independent travel.

In a bid to retain market share, established operators are reducing fares: Eurostar is offering daytrips from London to Paris for pounds 49, while British Airways Holidays has two-night city breaks to the French capital for pounds 99, including accommodation.

Ethel Power of Ryanair, the no-frills airline, said new routes from Stansted are heavily booked. She added: "Carcassonne is chock-a-block, and all of our Italian destinations are doing well." One reason could be that the airline has been selling seats on unpopular flights for as little as pounds 48 return.

Not every operator to the Adriatic coast of Italy is reporting such strong demand. The villa specialist Vacanze In Italia yesterday cut prices for some properties in the Marches during August by up to 40 per cent.

Spain is benefitting from a summer crop of no-frills flights. Go, BA's cut-price offshoot, is launching services from Stansted to Alicante, Ibiza and Malaga, while EasyJet has just begun flying from Liverpool to Malaga. Demand for Spanish currency this week has more than doubled compared with 1998, according to Clive Kahn, of Travelex, the bureau de change company.

Neighbouring Portugal has not fared so well, with numerous city-break visitors expressing dismay at the amount of construction work taking place in Lisbon, the capital. "It's one big building site," commented a traveller who has just returned from the city. "It'll be nice when it's finished."

The Mediterranean countries that are enjoying the greatest upsurge in interest are Tunisia and Morocco, according to Lyn Hughes, editor of Wanderlust, the independent travel magazine: "A lot of the interior design magazines have been featuring Morocco, and Moroccan restaurants are opening up. Tunisia is `in' because of Star Wars." The new movie was filmed partly on location in Tunisia.

Political conflict continues to depress some destinations. Croatia and Greece are feeling the effects of the crisis in the Balkans. Yesterday, a Lunn Poly travel agency in London's Docklands was selling a week's holiday in Croatia for pounds 259, including flights from Gatwick and half-board accommodation, departing on 3 August. The tourism ministry in Croatia is subsidising charter flights by up to pounds 35 per seat in a bid to attract visitors.

Greece is slipping down the overseas holiday league table, according to Jackie Gibson of the Association of British Travel Agents. "The United States seems to be taking over third place", she said. A week in Cephallonia, which hitherto had enjoyed a boom because of the book Captain Corelli's Mandolin, is on sale from Lunn Poly for pounds 259.

Worst hit of all is Turkey, where a week's holiday departing next Tuesday costs just pounds 169 - way below the average price for August. The death sentence imposed upon Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the PKK Kurdish guerrilla group, together with threats of attacks on tourists, is deterring many of the million-plus British tourists who usually visit Turkey each year.

"Turkey is a dead duck this summer," said James Daunt, who runs a travel bookshop in London. Guidebook sales provide a good indicator of trends in travel, and they this summer point towards a surge in interest in a region previously regarded as of strictly minority interest.

"Latin America is very popular, especially Cuba", said Mr Daunt. On Monday, Fidel Castro, Cuba's president, celebrates the most important date in the revolutionary calendar: Moncada Day, commemorating his failed 1953 uprising against the Batista regime. All-inclusive package trips to the West's last bastion of communism are on sale through The Holiday Place for as little as pounds 549.

The lowest-ever air fares ever to South America are fuelling interest in the region. "Peru, and in particular Machu Picchu is hot, hot, hot," said Wanderlust's Lyn Hughes. The Orient Express group has just signed an agreement to take over Peru's railways, and already owns hotels in the former Inca capital of Cuzco and in Machu Picchu itself.

Brazil and Argentina are also selling fast; British Airways has just launched flights to Rio and Sao Paulo for pounds 330 return through discount agents. But not everywhere in Latin America is expecting a good August. "Venezuela isn't getting much profile, since the national airline went bust", said David Gilmour of the agency South American Experience. "Belize is having a tough time, too, because of travellers' misconceptions about the effects of Hurricane Mitch". Agents are hoping that the publicity given to the small nation by the Michael Ashcroft affair will boost bookings, but this has yet to materialise.

Among other long-haul destinations, prospects are mixed. "Kenya is quiet because of some adverse publicity, but Tanzania is doing well," said David Orkin of the long-haul discount specialist Quest Worldwide. "Bookings to South Africa are higher than I would expect, thanks largely to some special fares". But Shanghai, a new route for a number of airlines, including Virgin, is selling slowly.

Independent travellers are beginning to turn up their noses at Thailand, with many feeling that the interest in The Beach, Alex Garland's book (and soon-to-be film), has rendered the destination passe. British Airways Holidays is advertising a week in Krabi, the location for the movie version of to book, for just pounds 589 in August.

The backpackers could be moving west to the Caucasus. Travellers who rely on guidebooks have been waiting for ages for a decent guide to the former Soviet republic of Georgia; this month, two have come along at once, with both Odyssey and Bradt Publications bringing out guides to the country. "Many things in Georgia are in a terrible state," said Tim Burford, the author of the Bradt guide. But Georgian people, he adds, are "the most hospitable and generous you could meet anywhere".

Iran is also expecting an upsurge in interest early in August since it will be the prime location for viewing the total solar eclipse. Everywhere else on the track of totality is hoping to reap an "eclipse dividend", with northern France performing particularly strongly.

But there is a glimmer of light at the end of the eclipse: the legendary home of King Arthur is recording the fastest growth of any English Heritage property, with a one-sixth increase in visitor numbers so far this summer.

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Cuba: Che Guevara, Ernest Hemingway and Salsa have their charms, but price is the key

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Thailand: Too much of Alex Garland and Leonardo DiCaprio has made it passe

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Cornwall: The eclipse and superb beaches have made it an alternative to northern France

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Portugal: Cheap, but too much construction work has taken off the glitter

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Scotland: Despite expecations, devolution has failed to exert its charm

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France: New destinations on cut-price airlines are bringing in independent travellers

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Greece: The Retsina, moussaka and plate-throwing have yet to become trendy again

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Peru: Machu Picchu is hot, hot, hot, say the travel agents and fares are cheaper than ever