Gerhard Schröder: Vorsprung durch politik, as they say in Germany

Gerhard Schröder's friends say he knew in 1986 that he would one day be Chancellor of Germany. Then he was fighting to become leader of the Social Democrats in his home state of Lower Saxony, around Hanover. Schröder was an outsider, with a reputation as a left-wing firebrand. But he had charm, and the gift of the gab. He toured the local party chapters and won. Four years later he won the state election to become premier of Lower Saxony. By 1998 he had taken over Germany's top job.

From this it might sound as if Schröder is single-minded and a man of conviction, but the record suggests he is neither. The key to understanding him is that he has passed every big test in his life too easily. After he took power in Lower Saxony his critics say he lost his convictions and became a manager. That may help to explain why he has lost his way, with economic policies that are dragging Germany down, foreign policies that have sown discord within Europe and across the Atlantic, and a breakdown in relations with the press, including British newspapers, which he has tried to stop reporting on his personal life by the heavy-handed use of injunctions.

Yet there are times when a different Schröder appears. Last week he stood beside President Jacques Chirac of France on the 40th anniversary of the Elysée treaty of co-operation as both leaders solemnly declared that their two nations share a "common destiny". They would combine their efforts to stop the United States and the United Kingdom from going to war with Iraq. They would cling on to the joint leadership of the European Union. They would harmonise their laws and cabinet debates, and create a dual French-German nationality.

It was a stance which US leaders perceived as a serious rebellion. "Germany is a problem," thundered Donald Rumsfeld, US Defence Secretary, adding that Germany and France represent "old Europe". Gerhard Schröder now opposes military action even if authorised by the United Nations, creating a precedent of German unilateralism.

Schröder's early life near Hanover taught him to trust his own abilities. Born in April 1944, he never knew his father, who died as a soldier on the eastern front in the Second World War. His mother worked as a cleaner. The young Schröder left school at 14 to become the breadwinner. He worked in a hardware shop and studied every evening to qualify, eventually, as a lawyer. He had many talents: he was the striker in his local football team, but politics was where he really shone. As the leader of the Young Socialists he led protests for left-wing causes, including opposition to the US war in Vietnam.

He was marked out as a future leader by Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt, but he lacked experience of politics at national level. He spent only six years, from 1980 to 1986, in the Bundestag in Bonn. There his reputation as a rebel grew. Once, when he was out at night with some friends, he shook the fence round the Chancellery building, shouting "Let me in!"

He tried to make up for missing university. He took a short English language course in Bournemouth – although he has still not mastered any foreign language. He developed a taste for Cuban cigars and an interest in modern art, and began collecting paintings.

Schröder had begun his collection of marriage partners much earlier. He married his first wife, a childhood sweetheart, in 1968. Today he is on his fourth marriage, with Doris Schröder-Kopf, a journalist 20 years his junior. There are those who see his lack of constancy in marriage as the mark of a man who lacks any deep commitment.

By 1998 Schröder's party was begging him to be its leader and he agreed. The Germans had had enough of Helmut Kohl. Schröder, with his allies the Greens, won by a large margin.

He did not appear to have any special programme for governing. First he indicated that he would follow Tony Blair's "third way" reform programme. Then he promised to defend the German model of welfare. He began some reforms to pensions and the labour laws, but they failed to stop unemployment rising above four million.

But at the start Schröder announced one political credo of his own, and it may explain why he is prepared to alienate Germany's protector, the US. He said Germany would no longer be a prisoner of its Nazi past. It would stand up for its "national interests – no more and no less than other states". He publicly attacked the European Commission when it questioned German state subsidies to industry or alleged violations of EU monopoly rules. He demanded special treatment, saying Germany was the milch-cow of the EU and sometimes "the cow needs to be stroked".

The 11 September attacks on America forced big choices on Schröder. After some hesitation he called a confidence vote in parliament to send troops to Afghanistan as part of the US-led coalition against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban. The gamble paid off. Later Germany played a big diplomatic role, hosting the Afghan conference in Bonn which led to the formation of a stable government in Kabul.

And his legendary good luck held. In last year's federal election, Schröder was saved by his skilful presentation, and by his decision to play the anti-war card to a fervently anti-war electorate. After his re-election his popularity slumped again, as the depth of the country's economic malaise became apparent. And he has lost his old sense of humour. He used to be called the "media Chancellor" but now the media are wary or hostile towards a leader who uses the courts to block reports about his private life. Last year he won a lawsuit against a news agency for carrying an unfounded suggestion that he dyed his hair.

Schröder's wife, Doris, is said to have pressed him to have recourse to the law. The latest legal action by the Chancellor is aimed at stopping the media from printing allegations that he has new marital problems. The Schröders' legal battle against the eastern German Märkische Oderzeitung is set to go on. And the Mail on Sunday, which has gleefully defied the German court ruling, is still making the most of the allegations.

Many Germans say they do not know what Schröder really believes in. Last week's vow of loyalty to France does not ring true. His contacts with France have been severely strained over the years. The Franco-German manifesto also seems to spell trouble for the British Government. Has Schröder forgotten his debt to Tony Blair, the first European leader to invite him over for friendly talks after President George Bush's advisers said he had "poisoned" Germany's ties with the US. It would be ironic if a German leader who came to office with a reputation as an Atlanticist should end up splitting the Atlantic alliance as never before.