Maduro's last dance? Venezuela's ultimate political survivor faces toughest challenge yet

Nicolás Maduro struts across the stage, flapping his arms to a trap merengue beat as a high-pitch rooster crow blasting from a wall of speakers energizes throngs of diehards gathered to support the Venezuelan president’s re-election bid.

Campaign jingles are never an afterthought in music-loving Venezuela, and this catchy one about a “fighting cock” that always manages to win perfectly matches the embattled leftist leader’s political moment.

Since the late Hugo Chávez passed the torch of his Bolivarian revolution to his loyal aide 11 years ago, Maduro has survived an almost impossible litany of threats. They range from a drone attack and mass protests over the collapse of the oil-rich economy to an international criminal investigation for human rights abuses and a $15 million U.S. bounty tied to allegations of drug trafficking.

But Sunday's election has emerged as his toughest challenge yet, one that if he loses could be his last dance.

Baseball or politics?

A new biopic, produced for the campaign, reveals new details about Maduro's upbringing. It recounts how the future president grew up in a working class barrio of Caracas torn between his love of baseball and student activism.

“Make a decision,” a coach tells the teenage pitcher portraying Maduro in the movie when he arrives late to the diamond. “It's either baseball or politics.”

In real life, after embracing his father's radical politics, Maduro was sent to communist Cuba in 1986 for a year of ideological instruction — his only studies after high school.

Upon returning home, he found work as a bus driver and union organizer. He embraced Chávez after the then-army paratrooper in 1992 staged a failed coup against an unpopular austerity government. Around the same time he met his longtime partner, Cilia Flores, a lawyer for the jailed leader.

After Chávez was freed and elected president in 1998, Maduro, a young lawmaker, helped push his agenda of redistributing the OPEC nation's oil wealth and political power.

International recognition

In 2006, Chávez appointed Maduro foreign minister, a recognition of his work smoothing over tensions with the U.S. following a short-lived coup. In that role, he spread Venezuela's petro-dollars throughout the world, building lasting alliances and connections.

“He was always very disciplined,” said Vladimir Villegas, who has known Maduro since high school and served as his deputy foreign minister until breaking with Chávez.

When Maduro took power in 2013 following his mentor's death from cancer, he struggled to bring order to the grief-stricken nation. Without “El Comandante” in charge, the economy entered a death spiral — it would shrink 71% from 2012 to 2020, with inflation topping 130,000% — and opponents and rivals inside the government smelled blood.

He earned the nickname of “Maburro” among elites for folkish antics like claiming Chávez appeared to him as a “little bird.” Less than a year into his accidental presidency, hardliner opponents launched massive demonstrations demanding his exit.

Leaning heavily on the security forces, he crushed the protests. But with supermarket shelves empty amid widespread shortages, they resumed with more intensity three years later, leaving more than 100 people dead. In 2018, the International Criminal Court initiated a criminal investigation into possible crimes against humanity.

The crackdown continued into the 2018 presidential race, which the opposition boycotted when several of its leaders were barred from running. Dozens of countries led by the U.S. condemned his re-election as illegitimate and recognized Juan Guaidó, the head of the National Assembly, as Venezuela's legitimate leader.

More unrest ensued, this time bolstered by the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” campaign of punishing oil sanctions. Then came a clandestine raid organized by an ex U.S. Green Beret, a barracks uprising and finally the global coronavirus pandemic.

Somehow, after each crisis, Maduro emerged stronger even if the country's problems deepened. By 2022, with his opponents vanquished, he took on a new nickname: Super Bigote, a nod to his thick black mustache. It was also a tribute by supporters to his superhero-like reputation for defying the odds and smiting powerful enemies.

"As a president, Maduro has been a disaster and doesn't understand a lot of what it takes to run a modern society," said David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University who has studied the country for 30 years. "But he knows how to keep power and shouldn't be underestimated."