New show in DC as politics edges out sex

FOR THE first time in months there was another show in town this weekend. Congress was in special extended session, arguing the finer points of the Budget Bill in an 11th-hour bid shutdown before campaigning begins in earnest for next month's mid-term elections.

High-profile legislation in which both parties had a stake - President Bill Clinton's tobacco bill, a law to provide healthcare guarantees and Republican tax-cutting proposals - has gone by the board. Yesterday was spent arguing over education spending as both sides tried to salvage something from an otherwise unproductive political term. Neither party wants to be saddled with blame for shutting down the government before the elections, and politicians are prepared to stay until tomorrow if necessary.

The reason there had been no time to hammer out the details of these bills before was Monica Lewinsky. Only when Thursday's fire and brimstone debate in the House of Representatives was over, and the vote was taken that made Bill Clinton the first President since Richard Nixon to face an impeachment inquiry, was Congress free to return to law- making.

Ironically, it was during the government shutdown three years ago that the unpaid trainees had the run of the White House, filling in for the salaried staff who stayed at home. Then Monica Lewinsky bared her thong underwear for the President's benefit and brought him pizza. The rest is in the Starr report.

The immediate effect of that government shutdown was to turn the tables on Newt Gingrich's gung-ho Republicans. The sharply negative public response to the shutdown enabled Mr Clinton to recapture the initiative. Republican victories at the polls the previous year had given Mr Gingrich the upper hand, but he overplayed it - he lost the stand-off with the White House, and has never looked as powerful since. The experience of 1995 taught both parties the risks of appearing obstructive, which is why they are so concerned to avoid another shutdown this year on the eve of elections.

But what neither party can gauge is the effect the presidential scandal has had on their prospects. Will these mid-term congressional elections become a referendum on Bill Clinton's presidency? Has the US, as one leading US pundit, Bill Schneider, argues, been transformed into a parliamentary democracy for this campaign?

The pollsters are unanimous on one point. They admit they cannot forecast the impact of the Lewinsky affair. They cite the same contradictory factors. The country is deeply divided - not entirely along party lines - about the President. His popularity and job-competence ratings are holding up well. More than half (53 per cent) oppose impeachment hearings. But a majority wants some sanction against him and the estimation of his "character" is lower than that of Nixon at his nadir.

One possibility is that moral disapproval will bring Republicans out in force and repel keep Democrats. Another is a pro-Clinton backlash, bringing Democrats out in larger numbers in protest at the "pillorying of their President".

One poll, before last week's impeachment debate, suggested that Democratic candidates stood to lose more support from backing impeachment than from opposing it, and the small number of Democrats who voted with the Republicans (31 out of 206) may have reflected that view. But how far will the electorate take national considerations into account in voting for their representative or senator?

The proximity of last week's impeachment vote with next month's elections means the verdict on Bill Clinton now rests with America's voters. They have three weeks to make up their minds.

Andrew Stephen, page 28