May Ball madness as south prepares for hosepipe bans

By the end of this month, more than a million people will be covered by sprinkler bans if the run of dry weather continues.

A second Channel island may declare a hosepipe and sprinkler ban today because of the deepening drought. Guernsey's water board brought in island- wide restrictions on water use yesterday, the first in Britain this year, and Jersey's board will meet today to discuss whether one is needed.

Most water companies on the British mainland say there is no likelihood of any restrictions and drought orders, provided something like average rainfall resumes. The Meteorological Office is forecasting a more normal May, after a January, March and April which were extremely dry - although February had well above average rainfall.

The most vulnerable areas are in south-east England. Southern Water already has a sprinkler ban covering 830,000 customers in East and West Sussex which dates back to last summer.

The Sutton and East Surrey Water Company, serving more than 600,000 people on London's southern fringe and green belt area, will probably be the next in line. A spokesman said the need for a sprinkler ban was being considered on a daily basis. ''There is a strong likelihood restrictions will be necessary," he said.

The last 24 months has been the driest such period in England and Wales since reliable records began more than two centuries ago. And since 1988, annual rainfall has been below the long-term average in each calendar year apart from1994.

Even before this recent spell of dry years began, London received less rainfall in the average year than New York, Rome, Lisbon and Paris, according to the Meteorological Office.

But climate scientists say the chain of English droughts cannot yet be attributed to man-made climate change caused by a build up of heat trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere.

Dr Geoffrey Jenkins of the Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction said yesterday: ''We would expect less rain to fall here as the climate changes world-wide, but not this much - it's already greater than we'd anticipate.''

In other words, the drought could be a blip like the 18-month ''Great Drought'' of 1975 and 1976, which was followed by a return to average rainfall.

Climatologists are confident that the slow, jerky rise in temperatures world-wide is linked to increasing atmospheric pollution by carbon dioxide and other substances - and this trend will continue and accelerate.

But their supercomputer models do not yet provide credible predictions of the detailed impact on individual continents, let alone on small countries such as the United Kingdom, which covers only 1,000th of the globe's surface.

In Guernsey, the new restrictions go well beyond a sprinkler ban. Car washes have to use their own supply or cease operating, swimming pools cannot be filled or topped up, and washing cars, boats, aircraft and buildings with a hose are all forbidden.

The island has had water bans in four of the last seven years. Colin Gaudion, the water board's engineer and manager, said he was looking into increasing the size or number of reservoirs, or at the possibility of building a desalination plant to turn seawater into fresh water. The island boasted a prototype which closed in the 1980s.

Neighbouring Jersey has a working plant which can supply1.5 million gallons of freshwater a day - a quarter of the island's peak demand. But it is expensive to run because it burns large quantities of oil, so the water board uses it as little as possible. Ian James, the managing director, said the board would meet today and restrictions were on the agenda.