Why AP called the North Carolina governor's race for Josh Stein

A massive lead gained from votes cast before Election Day helped deliver victory to North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat who handily defeated Republican Mark Robinson, the state's scandal-plagued lieutenant governor.

Two factors were largely responsible for Stein's win. First, most of the state's votes were cast before Election Day — roughly three-quarters — and Stein won those by more than 16 percentage points. And while Robinson held an early lead when it came to votes cast on Election Day, the vast majority of ballots left to be counted were in population-dense Democratic areas.

When The Associated Press called the race for Stein at 8:50 p.m., he was not only winning Democratic regions of the state, but also held a commanding lead in battleground areas while eating into Robinson's margins in Republican parts of the state.

The outcome wasn't exactly a surprise. Robinson had been dogged by incendiary comments he had made in the past, including frequent posts he made to a pornography website's message board, which were unearthed during the campaign.

CANDIDATES: North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

WINNER: Stein

POLL CLOSING TIME: 7:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE RACE:

North Carolina’s race for governor was a bumpy ride from the start after Republicans nominated Robinson, the state’s bombastic lieutenant governor, whose brief political career has been punctuated by antisemitic and sexist commentary — including Robinson telling women to “keep your skirt down” to avoid unwanted pregnancy and referring to Michelle Obama as a man.

Over the summer, Robinson was already polling well behind Stein, the Democratic state attorney general. But Robinson's approval rating went into a tailspin after CNN published a story in September revealing Robinson had posted racist and explicit messages on a pornography web site message board more than a decade ago, calling himself as a “black NAZI” and stating that he enjoyed transgender pornography.

Many of his campaign staff members resigned and he was excluded from a Trump campaign event in Wilmington.

If Robinson had won, he would have been North Carolina's first Black governor.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Stein was winning in ballots cast before Election Day, and much of the remaining vote left to be counted was population-dense areas that are predominantly Democratic. These included Wake County, which is home to Raleigh; Mecklenburg County, home to Charlotte; and Guilford County, home to Greensboro. There were not enough votes left to be counted in Republican areas for Robinson to overtake Stein's lead.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.