There's still time to stop Brexit – here's how

Brexit is not a done deal. And it won’t be until 29 March next year. At any point up to then, we can change our minds and stay in the EU.

The most realistic path to stop Brexit is to get a “people’s vote” on the deal that Theresa May negotiates – and then win that vote.

Saturday’s People’s Vote march, to mark the second anniversary of the referendum, is a key milestone on the journey. Tens of thousands of people are descending on central London to demand the final say on the Brexit deal – and the right to stay in the EU if it isn’t good enough.

Of course, just because people go on a march doesn’t mean we will get what we want. We are the underdogs in this fight.

Most politicians are toeing the line that Brexit is inevitable. That’s the official policy of both the Tory government and the Labour opposition. It also appears to be the view of the BBC which, as a result, doesn’t give much air time to the possibility that we can stop Brexit.

Despite having the dice loaded against us, the chances of getting a people’s vote and then winning it are going up.

The compromise agreed this week over a “meaningful vote” for MPs at the end of the Brexit talks isn’t perfect. But it will still give us the basis to get a people’s vote if Theresa May comes back with a miserable deal towards the end of the year, as seems only too likely.

After all, the waters of the cabinet are close to boiling point. Two years after the referendum, it still can’t agree what it wants from Brexit. It is searching for a “good Brexit” – and, like unicorns, a good Brexit doesn’t exist. So the prime minister keeps kicking the can down the road.

Such dithering is creating uncertainty for business and stifling investment. It is also undermining our negotiating position with the EU.

We need Europe more than it needs us because its economy is five times as big as ours. So we were always going to be in a weak position. But May has played a bad hand awfully. She threw away her best card – the decision of when to start the two-year negotiating clock ticking – without securing anything in return. This was despite our then ambassador to the EU warning that we would get “screwed”.

The prime minister has been forced to make one capitulation after another. She agreed to pay £39bn in a divorce payment. She pleaded for a transition period to cushion the blow of Brexit after we leave – and in return agreed we would follow all the EU’s rules without a vote on them. How’s that taking back control?

Meanwhile, the public are sick and tired of the whole goddamn business. They want to get on with their lives, spend time with their families and watch the World Cup.

But they know Brexit is going badly – by 66 per cent to 21 per cent. Record numbers of voters think Brexit was a bad idea: 47 per cent to 40 cent. They also back the idea of a people’s vote by 53 per cent to 31 per cent.

The government is so weak and divided that anything is possible. Hardline Brexiteers could kick the prime minister out. There could be yet another general election. The Brexit talks could break down and the government could try to take us out of the EU with no deal – something its own leaked analysis describes as “Armageddon”.

But the most likely scenario is that the prime minister will limp on and produce a miserable deal that nobody likes – neither Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson, nor patriotic pro-Europeans like those marching on Saturday.

This is because to get a deal, May will have to capitulate even further on her “red lines”. Expect her to agree to keep paying money into the EU budget for years to come. Her talk about a Brexit dividend for the NHS is a lie, by the way. In repeating it, the prime minister has gone full Boris.

Expect her also to agree that we will follow most of the EU’s rules without a vote – not just for the transition period but for as far as the eye can see.

We are a proud nation. We have virtually written the rules of Europe’s single market. We’ll be turned into what Johnson likes to call a “vassal state”. All those dreams of striding the world, cutting buccaneering deals in foreign lands, will go up in smoke.

It’s not even as if the prime minister will protect the economy if she agrees all this. The best we will end up with is probably free movement in “goods”. Given that four-fifths of our economy is “services”, that’s bad.

Brexit will also blow a £15bn annual hole in the public finances, according to official forecasts. That means less money for public services such as the NHS, not more.

A deal that keeps us in the EU’s customs union and follows most of its rules is, in the jargon, known as a Customs and Regulatory Alignment Period (CRAP). When the prime minister brings back CRAP, MPs must give the public a vote.

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The democratic case for a people’s vote is compelling. Think of it like buying a house. It looks wonderful, so you make an offer. Then you get the survey. The house has dry rot, the roof is falling in, there’s subsidence and a developer is building a six-storey office that will block your view and the light.

If you still want to buy the house, go ahead. But you don’t have to, because new facts have emerged.

The same goes for Brexit. Lots of new facts have emerged since the referendum.

We’ve gone from the fastest to the slowest growing advanced large economy in the world – and that’s before Brexit has even happened.

The two main Leave campaigns – those fronted by Johnson and Nigel Farage – seem effectively to have cheated in the referendum.

Meantime, Donald Trump is in the White House – putting children in cages, launching trade wars, threatening to tear up the climate change pact and questioning Nato’s validity. Is now really a good time to burn our bridges with Europe and suck up to America?

We knew none of this two years ago.

The biggest new fact will be the deal that we get – and that’s what the people should get a vote on.

This would not be a rerun of the referendum. Last time, we had a choice between the imperfect reality of staying in the EU and the fantasy of Brexit. All those sunlit uplands, land flowing with milk and honey; Johnson’s having our cake and eating it.

Once we have a deal to look at, people can compare the reality of “In” with the misery of “Out”.

But we mustn’t just point out the dangers of Brexit – real though those are. Project Fear 2.0 on its own may not win a people’s vote – or not do so convincingly.

Many voters are not susceptible to negative campaigning. They have put up with years of austerity. Their communities have been neglected. Automation and globalisation are threatening their jobs. They struggle to get good quality, affordable homes. They are fed up with dishonest politicians.

Such people don’t like the status quo. They want change – and they are right to want change.

We therefore need to articulate a positive vision for a better Britain. One that is fairer, which offers the hope for a better tomorrow and where people are more in control of their lives.

We need to show we understand the problems people are struggling with – but explain that Brexit is not the solution. We can, instead, best tackle the threats of the 21st century and grasp its opportunities by being a leading player in Europe.

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To get a people’s vote, we will need the support of the Labour Party, the rest of the opposition plus at least 10 Tory “rebels”.

Jeremy Corbyn isn’t there yet. He has never been keen on the EU. He damned it with faint praise during the referendum.

But many of the Labour leader’s backers are strongly pro-European.

Trade unions are worried that quitting the EU will be bad for workers – exposing them to the worst ravages of globalisation and undermining their rights.

Young people fear Brexit will rob them of their future – including their ability to work, live and love across 31 other countries. They back a people’s vote by 65 per cent to 22.

And ordinary Labour supporters are worried that Brexit will mean endless austerity. They back a people’s vote by 69 per cent to 18.

There are, of course, important exceptions. Some Labour voters and MPs don’t want to stay in the EU because they don’t like the free movement of people.

We therefore have to show how we can manage migration without quitting the EU. Gordon Brown this month produced a six-point plan – including registering EU citizens who want to live here. The EU itself has just tightened the rules so it is harder for cheap foreign labour to undercut local workers.

Of course, Corbyn wants to nationalise and subsidise industries – and might still believe he will have more freedom to pursue such an agenda if we quit the EU.

The message, though, may be getting through that this isn’t so. There was nothing in last year’s Labour manifesto that would have contravened EU law. What’s more, any deal we do with the EU post-Brexit would limit our ability to throw money at loss-making companies.

For all these reasons, Corbyn has been taking baby steps towards a more pro-European policy. Labour says it will vote against the government’s Brexit deal unless it gives us the “exact same benefits” that we currently get from membership of the EU’s single market and customs union. There’s no way May can deliver such a deal. So, if Labour sticks to its word, it will vote against the deal.

But if May does lose a vote in parliament over the deal then what comes next?

Corbyn will want a general election. But he’s unlikely to get his wish. If the government’s deal is voted down, the Tories won’t be gagging to call an election. That would be like committing harakiri.

Labour might tell the government to go back to Brussels and negotiate a different deal. But there wouldn’t be much time as the Brexit deadline would by then be upon us – and Labour wouldn’t want us to crash out of the EU with no deal at all.

So by a process of elimination, the party could end up backing a people’s vote. Indeed, Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said this month that Labour is keeping its options open on the issue. For the “people’s party” to back a people’s vote could ultimately be in both its own interests and those of the country.

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The opposition’s support however won’t count for a row of beans unless at least 10 Tory MPs also decide to give voters the final say.

So far only a handful, notably Anna Soubry, have spoken out in favour. They need real courage to do so. Not only do they have to face the wrath of the whips. They have to put up with bullying by the Brexit press as well as death threats and abuse from some fanatical members of the public.

On the other hand, Conservatives think of themselves as pro-business and defenders of what the prime minister calls “our precious union”.

So there are two hot-button issues that could swing a few MPs when the crunch vote comes. Botching Brexit could destroy the Tories’ reputation for economic competence – and keep them out of power for a generation. It could also break up the United Kingdom, destabilising Northern Ireland and potentially giving Scotland another excuse to shoot for independence.

Ordinary voters who care about Brexit don’t have to wait passively for the political drama to unfold.

The People’s Vote campaign, launched two months ago, is an active player in the story. It is an umbrella campaign bringing together nine pro-European groups. It has been endorsed by a growing list of supporters: nurses, midwives, students and some trade unions.

Over the coming months, we will be working to get wave after wave of civil society groups to back our campaign. We will be pushing to shift public opinion further in our favour by grassroots campaigning across the country – and via the media.

Most MPs know in their hearts that Brexit is bad for Britain. But they are too scared to speak up because they are terrorised by the so-called will of the people. But if the people’s will changes – and the public demand a people’s vote – politicians will follow.

This is why Saturday’s march is so important. It will show MPs that we still care.

But going on demonstrations isn’t the only thing ordinary people can do to make a difference. They can contact their MPs. They can engage in civilised debates with friends, family and colleagues. They can get active online. And they can volunteer for the People’s Vote campaign.

We do not have to be passive observers of a train wreck. This is our country. This is our life. We can get involved. We can make a difference. Yes, we can.

Hugo Dixon is chair of InFacts and a founding member of the People’s Vote campaign