Jobs challenge faces over-50s as market fades

A stark warning was delivered yesterday on the future of Britain unless millions of jobs are created over the next decade to mop up unemployment and to cope with increasing working-age and retiring- age populations.

The country's current pension provisions are inadequate, and many of the older generation are likely to find themselves destitute when they reach retiring age unless the workforce can be expanded to provide for them.

This was the bleak outlook forecast for "third agers" - those aged 50 or more who are still able to work - by a report prepared for a conference held today by the Carnegie Third Age Programme. The economy will have to expand to provide work for these "third agers", as well as for young people who have just reached working age.

The report was put together by Chris Trinder of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Richard Worsley of the Carnegie Third Age Programme.

The study, The Third Age: The Continuing Challenge, argues that Britain will not only need to create work for the two million people who are currently on the unemployment register, but will also have to find another 1.4 million jobs - 900,000 for men, 500,000 for women - over the next 11 years to meet predicted demand.

Although the unemployment figures have been dropping steadily over the past few years, the number of people in jobs remains 600,000 below the peak 1990 figure of 26.3 million.

The authors believe that Britain may suffer from a "malign combination of rising unemployment and a continued reduction in employment opportunities".

In a depressing analysis of the economy, the authors argue that although employment grew to exceed its pre-recession level in the Eighties, that cannot be taken for granted in the Nineties. The recent decline in employment opportunities looks likely to become a much more persistent problem.

If the upturn in the labour market has merely been delayed, then better fortunes for older workers could still materialise, says the study. But this is seen as unlikely.

The type of employment now on offer is radically different to that found by Carnegie in its first report in 1989, when it began its campaign to highlight the special needs of the "third age". The report says that the decline in the number of full-time, pensioned jobs and the increase in the number of part-time jobs and short-term contracts have serious consequences for both younger and older people.

The deputy governor of the Bank of England, Howard Davies, contributed to the report. He points out that one in five people aged between 35 and 49 and one in three aged between 50 and 60 are currently unemployed or inactive.

"Most of these are perfectly fit and healthy, and yet the majority of them have left the labour market forever," he said.