Iran nuclear deal: Whatever Trump decides, it will be 'death by a thousand cuts'

Donald Trump will announce his decision on the Iran today with all the indications that it will begin the process of sabotaging an agreement which had a vital role in curbing nuclear proliferation and made the world a safer place.

The end will not take place at once. There are various permutations which may prolong the agreement for a while longer limping along under the threat of punitive American action banks and companies which will face swingeing sanctions if they engage in trade with Iran.

At the end, the broad consensus is that this landmark deal will suffer death by a thousand cuts.

A succession of leaders and ministers from Western allied states have been visiting Washington over the last weeks in an attempt to change Mr Trump’s mind, without success.

France’s Emmanuel Macron, whom the US president apparently likes, failed, as did Germany’s Angela Merkel, with whom he does not get on so well with.

Theresa May did not succeed with a phone call. Boris Johnson flew to Washington but could not even get access to the president, sending a plea for restraint through Mr Trump’s favourite TV channel, Fox News.

What they were saying echoed the long held view of all other signatories to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) – Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China – that it is working.

This is also the view of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the secretary-general of the UN and Western military and intelligence chiefs.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, however, wants the agreement scrapped and put on a show last week of documents to “expose” Tehran’s bad intent.

But what was produced was widely dismissed internationally as old material, issues examined by the IAEA three years ago.

Mr Netanyahu’s claims are contradicted by the Israeli military’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot who has stressed: “Right now the agreement, with all its faults, is working and is putting off realisation of the Iranian nuclear vision by 10 to 15 years.”

Twenty-six former senior former officials from Israel’s military, intelligence services, and the head of the country’s Atomic Energy Authority have sent an urgent message to Washington stating: “The consensus among the military and intelligence services around the world – including Israel’s own defence community – is that the pact is working...”

In the US, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, has come out publicly to point out that Iran is fulfilling its obligation, as did the Defence Secretary General James Mattis who has praised the rigorous UN inspection regime of Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Gen. Mattis had been one of the voices for caution on Iran along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor, Lieutenant General HR McMaster. But now Mr Tillerson and Lt Gen McMaster have gone in the extraordinary churn of the Trump administration to be replaced by two men who are particularly hawkish on Iran, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.

Mr Bolton, like Mr Trump a Vietnam draft dodger, has, in the past advocated bombing Iran. Shaul Mofatz, a former Israeli Defence Minister and Chief of Staff, revealed that Mr Bolton, while US ambassador to the UN, pressurised Israel to bomb Iran. Mr Mofatz declined, saying “I don’t think it is a smart move.”

Mr Bolton has been noticeably quiet publicly about Iran, but Mr Pompeo was in Israel just ahead of Mr Netanyahu’s presentation, and declared that it was proof “beyond any reasonable doubt” that the “Iranian regime was not telling the truth”.

Mr Trump, in his tweet storm saying he will today announce his decision on the nuclear deal, days earlier than the expected date of 12 May, berated John Kerry, one of the architects of the agreement, for speaking to international statesmen about ways to save it.

The former Secretary of State, Mr Trump said, is guilty of “possibly illegal Shadow Diplomacy on the very badly negotiated Iran deal.”

Mr Kerry was not, of course, doing anything illegal, but the tweet appears to show which way Mr Trump is heading.

He has a variety of options he can take to show his displeasure with the deal. He can refuse to sign a waiver to sanctions and withdraw the US from the JCPOA. He can sign it once again with a host of new demands on Tehran which are unlikely to be met. He can sign, including the demands, and ask the other signatories to come up with a new agreement in six months. He could also refuse to sign a waiver, but exempt banks and companies from signatory states from the sanctions – this is a highly unlikely scenario.

Some Iranian officials have warned that Mr Trump jettisoning the JCPOA would lead to cutting down access by UN inspectors to what is stipulated for member states of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and raise uranium enrichment to 20 per cent.

But in the most recent pronouncement from Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani stated his country will remain committed to the deal if the US reneges, as long as the other signatories also abide by it.

But the pessimism about what is unfolding was summed up by Aaron David Miller, a senior US diplomat now with the Wilson International Centre for Scholars: “It can’t be saved, whatever Trump decides, it’s the beginning of the end of the accord, either death by one or a thousand cuts.”