Pakistan's PM faces no-confidence vote, defeat seems likely

Pakistan’s embattled prime minister faces a no-confidence vote in Parliament on Sunday and the opposition said it has the numbers to win after Imran Khan's allies and partners in a fragile coalition abandoned him.

The opposition needs a simple majority of 172 votes in Pakistan's 342-seat Parliament to unseat Khan, a cricket star turned conservative Islamic politician. Khan's small but key coalition partners along with 17 of his own party members have joined the opposition to oust him.

The vote is expected to be held Sunday after Parliament is scheduled to convene at 11:30 a.m. (0630 GMT), but Pakistan's Parliamentary rules allow for three to seven days of debate. The opposition says it has the numbers for an immediate vote, but Khan's party could force a delay.

On Sunday, giant metal containers blocked roads and entrances to the capital's diplomatic enclave and to Parliament and other sensitive government installations in the capital. A defiant Khan called for supporters to stage demonstrations countrywide to protest the vote.

Khan has accused the opposition of being in cahoots with the United States to unseat him, saying America wants him gone over his foreign policy choices that often favor China and Russia. Khan has also been a strident opponent of America’s war on terror and Pakistan’s partnership in that war with Washington.

Khan has circulated a memo which he insists provides proof that Washington conspired with Pakistan's opposition to unseat him because America wants “me, personally, gone ... and everything would be forgiven.”

A loss for Khan would give his opponents the opportunity to form a new government and rule until elections, which are scheduled to be held next year. The opposition could also choose to call early elections.

Pakistan's main opposition parties, whose ideologies span the spectrum from left to right to radically religious, have been rallying for Khan's ouster almost since he was elected in 2018.

Khan's win was mired in controversy amid widespread accusations that Pakistan's powerful army helped his Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (Justice) Party to an election win.

Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert with the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace, said the military's involvement in the 2018 polls undermined Khan's legitimacy from the outset.

“The movement against Imran Khan’s government is inseparable from his controversial rise to power in the 2018 election, which was manipulated by the army to push Khan over the line,” said Mir. “That really undermined the legitimacy of the electoral exercise and created the grounds for the current turmoil. ”

Pakistan's military has directly ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 75-year history, overthrowing successive democratically elected governments. For the remainder of that time it has indirectly manipulated elected governments from the sidelines.

The opposition has also accused Khan of economic mismanagement, blaming him for rising prices and high inflation. Still, Khan's government is credited with maintaining a foreign reserve account of $18 billion and bringing in a record $29 billion last year from overseas Pakistanis.

Khan's anti-corruption reputation is credited with encouraging expatriate Pakistanis to send money home. His government has also received international praise for its handling of the COVID-19 crisis and implementing so-called “smart lockdowns” rather than countrywide shutdowns. As a result, several of Pakistan's key industries, such as construction, have survived.

Khan's leadership style has often been criticized as confrontational.

“Khan’s biggest failing has been his insistence on remaining a partisan leader to the bitter end,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Washington-based Wilson Center.

“He hasn’t been willing to extend a hand across the aisle to his rivals,” said Kugelman. “He’s remained stubborn and unwilling to make important compromises. As a result, he’s burned too many bridges at a moment when he badly needs all the help he can get.”

Khan’s insistence there is U.S. involvement in attempts to oust him exploits a deep-seated mistrust among many in Pakistan of U.S. intentions, particularly following 9/11, said Mir.

Washington has often berated Pakistan for doing too little to fight Islamic militants even as thousands of Pakistanis have died in militant attacks and the army has lost more than 5,000 soldiers. Pakistan has been attacked for aiding Taliban insurgents while also being asked to bring them to the peace table.

“The fact that it has such easy traction in Pakistan speaks to some of the damage U.S. foreign policy has done in the post 9/11 era in general and in Pakistan in particular,” said Mir. “There is a reservoir of anti-American sentiment in the country, which can be instrumentalized easily by politicians like Khan.”