UK coronavirus infections fall, latest estimates show

Coronavirus infections have fallen across much of the UK, the latest figures show, reaffirming the belief that the nation is now past the peak of the winter wave.

An estimated one in 65 people in England had Covid-19 between 24 and 30 January, according to the new infection survey published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Equivalent to 846,900 people, this is down from around one in 55 for the previous week.

Although the ONS said the number of people testing positive has “decreased”, it warned that the prevalence of infections in the UK “remains high”.

The R rate is meanwhile estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.0, according to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). This is down from last week's range of 0.7-1.1.

The latest growth rate range, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, now stands between -5 per cent and -2 per cent.

If the growth rate is greater than 0, then the epidemic is intensifying. If the growth rate is less than 0, then the epidemic is shrinking.

"These estimates mean we are now confident the epidemic is shrinking across England, though it remains important that everyone continues to stay at home in order to keep the R value down," the government said.

According to the ONS, the highest infection rates continue to be seen in London, with 2.1 per cent of the capital’s population testing positive for Covid-19 between 24 and 30 January.

The South East, North West, North East and South West have all seen a fall in rates from last week, though the East of England has recorded an increase.

The ONS data is based on swabs taken from people in households, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. It does not include care homes, hospitals and other institutional settings.

Because of this, it is seen as a more accurate reflection of the current state of the epidemic in the UK.

Test and Trace data released on Thursday showed a 29 per cent decrease in cases compared to the previous week, but the system is unable to account for the vast majority of asymptomatic infections within the population – a key driver of the Covid crisis.

In Wales, around one in 70 people had Covid-19 last week – unchanged from the previous estimate, the ONS said.

The figure for Northern Ireland was around one in 65 – down from one in 50 – while the estimate for Scotland was broadly unchanged, having fallen from around one in 110 people to one in 115.

The percentage of people testing positive in England has also decreased across all age groups, except in those aged over 70 years, the ONS added.

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said the latest ONS results “are somewhat better news” but insisted they “still represent very high rates of prevalence”.

“The roll out of the vaccine will not yet have impacted upon these figures – the decrease is due to lockdown,” he added. “However, the incredible progress being made in the vaccine roll out is to be celebrated as this will greatly reduce serious illness and deaths.”

He said the coronavirus variant which was first detected in Kent “looks to be responsible for the majority of infections across the UK, and the speed at which it has spread is striking”.

Earlier this week, Public Health England data showed that coronavirus cases have dropped across all regions in the country and among all age groups.

PHE’s latest surveillance report found the highest rate of infection was among 30 to 39-year-olds, with 358.6 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to 31 January, down week-on-week from 499.5.

Among 20 to 29-year-olds, the rate dropped from 478.7 to 333.5, and for 40 to 49-year-olds, it fell from 442.5 to 316.0. For people aged 80 and over, the rate fell from 412.0 to 284.5.

The West Midlands region is the worst hit area for infections with an overall rate of 319.9 infections per 100,000 people. This has fallen from 427.5 in the week before.

Admissions to hospital have fallen from 33.6 per 100,000 people to 25.26 per 100,000 people.

NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson warned that although the NHS had now passed the peak of infections the health service was still in “dangerous territory”.