Prostate cancer cases to double by 2040, new research suggests

Cases of prostate cancer are expected to double worldwide by 2040, according to new analysis.

The research, from The Lancet Commission, suggests cases of the cancer will rise from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040.

Annual deaths from the disease are also projected to increase by 85 per cent, to almost 700,000, over the same timeframe.

The rise in deaths and diagnosis is “unavoidable”, according to researchers, and is set to be driven by more cases in lower and middle income countries.

An ageing populations and increased life expectancy will also contribute to the higher number of older men having the disease.

The main risk factors for prostate cancer are being aged over 50 and having a family history of the disease. As a result, researchers say it will not be possible to avoid the surge in cases through public health intervention.

But the authors have called for early detection cancer screening programmes to be made available in low and middle income counties where cases are set to rise the most.

It also said that current screening programmes in higher income countries, such as the UK, which gives older men the option to be tested, is likely to miss cancers in high risk younger men.

Prostate cancer accounts for 15 per cent of male cancers and is the second most common cause of cancer deaths in men across the UK. Men with late-stage prostate cancer are much less likely to survive for a long period of time than those who are diagnosed early.

Professor Nick James, lead author and consultant clinical oncologist at The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, said: “As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases.

“We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now. Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help to save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come. This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries which will bear the overwhelming brunt of future cases.”

The UK’s current testing programme for prostate cancer allows men aged 50 with no symptoms to request a blood test to detect a protein in the blood.

However, these PSA tests often test prostate cancer which may never cause symptoms and not need treatment, according to the researchers.

The study suggests that this approach can lead to over testing in older men who are actually at low risk and an under testing of younger men who are high risk.

Instead the authors have called for the use of MRI scans and PSA tests to screen men who are at high risk, such as those with a family history of the disease, those of African origin and those carrying the BRACA2 gene mutation.

It said there is an “urgent” need for prostate cancer testing in lower and middle income counties, where most men don’t present until they have metastatic cancer – which his an advance form that has spread to other body parts.

Professor James N’Dow, chair in surgery at the University of Aberdeen, said: “The issue in low- and middle-income countries is that late diagnosis of prostate cancer is the norm. Improved outreach programmes are needed to better inform people of the key signs to look out for and what to do next.

“Implementing these in tandem with investments in cost-effective early diagnostic systems will be key to preventing deaths from prostate cancer as cases inevitably rise with a global ageing population.”