NHS will fail to hit waiting list target as A&Es face winter ‘tripledemic’

The NHS is likely to miss a key target to treat patients waiting more than a year for care, surgeons have warned, as new data shows A&E waits are increasing ahead of winter.

A core target to eliminate the backlog of patients waiting more than 65 weeks for NHS treatment by September is likely to be missed with 45,527 patients still waiting for more than a year and a quarter in August 2024, according to the Royal College of Surgeons.

Overall, some 6.42 million patients were estimated to be waiting for treatment at the end of August - up from 6.39 million in July. The number of treatments waiting to be carried out stood at 7.64 million in August, up from 7.62 million the previous month.

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: “These latest figures show the pressure we saw over summer is not letting up with too many patients waiting too long for treatment, following a record September for A&E attendances.”

“We know this is likely to be another incredibly busy winter, with extra demand and the threat of a ‘tripledemic’ of Covid, flu and RSV [Respiratory syncytial virus], and last month we set out our winter plan which included better data reporting and more care in the community like falls services and virtual wards, so we can see patients as quickly as possible in the busy months ahead.”

As NHS waiting lists rise, A&Es across England faced record levels of demand with 2.21 million attendances and 530,824 emergency admissions, making it the busiest September on record.

A&E waiting times have worsened going into winter with 129,012 left waiting for more than 12 hours to be seen, treated or discharged after arriving at emergency departments in September - up from 113,927 in August 2024.

The number waiting at least four hours in emergency departments from the decision to admit to admission also rose, standing at 130,632 in September, up from 116,489 in August.

Some 74.2 per cent of patients in England were seen within four hours in A&Es last month, down from 76.3 per cent in August.

The NHS recovery plan set a target of March this year for 76 per cent of patients attending A&E to be admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours.

A further target of 78 per cent has been set for March 2025.

The figures come after top A&E medic Dr Adrian Boyle accused NHS leaders of “normalising” corridor care and warned its winter plan would be insufficient this year.

Professor Frank Smith, Vice President of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “With waits of over 65 weeks still standing at 45,527 in August, the promise to eliminate these waits by September looks very hard to achieve. Too many patients continue to have to live in pain and anxiety, potentially unable to get back to work and help grow our economy.

“If the new government wants to show it is serious about meeting its pledge to cut waiting times, it must provide capital funding for NHS buildings and IT in the Autumn Budget later this month. With reports of broken lifts and flooded corridors in hospitals leading to cancelled operations, and surgeons telling us access to operating theatres remains an issue, cutting waits will remain an uphill battle without this investment.”

Figures this month also showed a total of 282,664 people in England had been waiting more than 52 weeks to start routine hospital treatment at the end of August, down from 290,326 at the end of July and the lowest number since December 2020.

The previous government and NHS England set the ambition of eliminating all waits of more than a year by March 2025.

Some 75.5 per cent of patients in England urgently referred for suspected cancer in August were diagnosed or had cancer ruled out within 28 days.

This is down from 76.2 per cent the previous month but is above the target of 75 per cent. It is the fourth month in a row this target has been exceeded.

GPs in England made 253,841 urgent cancer referrals in August, down from 286,720 in July and also down year-on-year from 268,224 in August 2023.

Minister of State for Health, Karin Smyth said: “With the winter months approaching fast, we have laid out our plans with NHS England to make sure the system is prepared. This includes using virtual wards to support patients out of hospital, making sure pharmacies are supporting general practice during this busy period and running the annual winter vaccination campaign, including offering RSV vaccines to vulnerable groups for the first time.”