How significant is UK recording zero daily Covid deaths?
Cases continues to rise but on Tuesday no deaths within 28 days of someone testing positive for Covid were reported for first time since last July
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Your support makes all the difference.The UK recorded zero daily Covid deaths for the first time since last summer on Tuesday — a symbolically significant milestone in the pandemic. But experts have urged caution.
While the number of cases continues to gradually rise, on Tuesday no deaths within 28 days of someone testing positive for Covid-19 were reported for the first time since 30 July 2020.
On that date, the government announced the number of people who had died after testing positive for Covid-19 had increased by 38.
But this was under a different system of counting and reporting, before the current 28-day cut-off had been introduced, so this figure is not comparable with the way deaths are reported now.
Tuesday’s announcement means the UK total death toll remained static at 127,782. Separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics show there have now been 153,000 deaths registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
The progress made since the start of the year, when tens of thousands of people died within weeks as the virus spread rapidly, reflects the fact that nearly three-quarters of adults have now received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine.
How significant is zero deaths?
On a human level, zero daily deaths is clearly significant.
Compared to the January peak, when the number of Covid patients dying was regularly above 1,000 each day, zero deaths is an important milestone.
Thousands of deaths have been prevented and pressure has been eased on NHS emergency and intensive care staff and facilities, and the UK is clearly in a much better place than it was a month – or year – ago.
Despite the success in reducing Covid deaths, health experts have urged caution.
Firstly, there has been a steady increase in the number of Covid infections, with a further 3,165 lab-confirmed cases in the UK on Tuesday. One month ago that figure was closer to 2,000 cases.
The announcement on zero deaths also comes after a bank holiday weekend, so there may be a delay in the reporting of the figures.
Deaths reported over a regular weekend are ordinarily much lower, and an extra bank holiday Monday has in the past affected the numbers declared.
For example, on the last bank holiday on 3 May 2021, there was just a single Covid death reported. Two days later, that figure jumped to 27.
Perhaps more significant is the seven-day average, taking account of lower reporting at the weekend, which stood at five on Tuesday. This has steadily been decreasing in recent months.
Individual regions of the UK have also recorded zero Covid deaths before now.
On 10 May, there were no coronavirus deaths in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland reported, while four deaths were registered in Wales.
Have other countries reported zero Covid deaths? How have they fared since?
Israel, which along with the UK has been one of the fastest countries in the world to vaccinate large swathes of its adult population, reported zero Covid deaths on 22 April, also for the first time in 10 months.
The country has since reported zero daily deaths around a dozen times and has not seen a significant uptick in its figures.
Could this impact the date for unlocking?
The latest figures come amid continuing debate over whether the final stages of unlocking restrictions in England can go ahead on 21 June.
While there have been concerns raised over the spread of the Indian – or Delta – variant, the latest tally is likely to feed into ministers' considerations on easing restrictions, and could reassure them that even as cases rise, deaths appear not yet to be following the same trajectory.
However Professor Adam Finn, of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said there are still many people who are vulnerable to the effects of Covid-19, as he warned “the idea that somehow the job is done is wrong”.
Professor Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said a delay of a few weeks could have a significant impact on Britain's battle against the pandemic and recommended it should be made clear to the public that it would be a temporary measure based on the surge in cases of the new variant.
And Pat Cullen, acting general secretary and chief executive of the Royal College of Nursing, urged ministers to watch the data, adding: “As the NHS starts the road to recovery now is the time to take cautious steps and not take an unchecked leap to freedom.”
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