UK Covid deaths rise above 1,000 for first time since April

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

Another 1,041 people in the UK have died after testing positive for Covid-19 – the highest reported tally since the first peak of the pandemic.

This is the first time since 21 April that daily deaths have risen above the 1,000 mark, bringing the nationwide total to 77,346, and comes amid a rising surge in infections across the four nations – driven in part by the new, highly contagious variant of coronavirus.

The Department of Health and Social Care said 62,322 new cases were reported on Wednesday, up from 60,916 the day before.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, 2,836,801 people have now been infected with Covid-19.

The government’s figures continue to be affected by a lag in the publication of recent data and will contain some deaths that took place over the Christmas and new year period that have only just been reported.

The latest data also showed that, as of 4 January, there were 30,451 patients in hospital with Covid-19 – yet another grim record tally for the NHS, which has found itself overwhelmed in recent weeks.

In London, hundreds of people a day are waiting hours for an emergency ambulance to reach them, while some trusts in the southeast have begun transferring critically ill patients to other hospitals across England.

Scientists have warned that the rising trend in Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths could continue throughout much of January, with the UK yet to reach the peak of the current second wave.

Despite the government’s decision to impose a third national lockdown – set to last at least seven weeks – leading experts have predicted that the Covid crisis will only intensify in the weeks to come.

“This upward trend of cases (and related hospitalisations and deaths) is likely to continue for another two-three weeks as the impact of social mixing during Christmas/new year continues to be felt,” said Dr Julian Tang, a professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester.

“But as the numbers of daily new cases start to fall towards the beginning of February, if we start to relax the restrictions then, this will give the virus a chance to surge again.

“So ideally we need to stay in lockdown beyond this, if we really want to suppress this virus sufficiently to allow the vaccination to reach the vulnerable and to avoid overwhelming the NHS.”

According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday, the new, highly contagious variant of coronavirus has helped drive the rate of infection to one in 50 across England.

The latest estimates released by the ONS indicate that, between 27 December and 2 January, 1.1 million people in private households in England were infected with Covid-19 – equivalent to around 2 per cent of the population.

The figures, taken from the ONS Covid-19 infection survey, represent a rise from 800,900 people, or one in 70, who were estimated to have Covid-19 the week before.

Scientists have said that thousands of fatalities are now baked in from the latest wave of infections. Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, warned it was “inevitable” that the UK would reach 100,000 Covid deaths in the “relatively near future”.

Describing the figures as “frighteningly high”, Dr Head said: “If we also highlight the huge numbers of confirmed daily cases, the fact that there’s more people in hospital now with Covid-19 than at any stage of the pandemic, and that almost any graph you look at is on a steep upward trajectory, then the UK is clearly not in a good place right now.”

Dr Amitava Banerjee, a professor in clinical data science at University College London, said the ONS findings indicate that the “pressure on hospitals and the NHS is yet to peak”.

“People will be wondering why we did not lockdown earlier, given the data regarding the new strain but also given the experience and evidence from the last two lockdowns,” he said. “We know that lockdowns work best and are shorter when they are early and stringent.”

Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, said some hospitals are already “pretty full” and he does not expect admissions to ease for “another two to three weeks” following the start of the new lockdown.

“There is an optimistic future, with the rollout of the vaccine programme,” said Dr Head. “The issue is that before we get to the point when we can all relax a little bit, there will be some grim times ahead.”

Efforts to inoculate the population are set to be boosted by the rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in GPs from Thursday.

The vaccine was first trialled at selected hospitals for surveillance purposes before being sent out to hundreds of community-based local vaccination services, where it will be offered to millions of patients throughout January.

Hundreds of new sites are due to open at hospitals, GPs and other community-based venues in the next phase of UK’s vaccination programme. This is in addition to the 700 sites which are already open and vaccinating.

The NHS is meanwhile offering GP services an extra £10 for every care home resident vaccinated in January in a drive to get the majority of this vulnerable group protected before the end of the month.

More than 1.3 million people have already received a first vaccine dose in the UK, including 23 percent – or over 650,000 – of the over-80s population in England.

The prime minister, Boris Johnson, said that the success of the rollout would determine when and how the latest lockdown restrictions are eased. No 10 has just under six weeks to meet its target, meaning health authorities will need to vaccinate roughly two million people every week.

However, the PM, who has come under pressure from senior Tories to commit to easing the restrictions as soon as possible, said on Wednesday there would be “substantial opportunities” for relaxation before March.

But he warned there would not be a “big bang” where all the curbs on freedoms were removed at once.

Mr Johnson said there was “no choice” but to issue the stay-at-home order and close schools given the spread of coronavirus, particularly the more infectious variant, which now accounts for the majority of cases across London and the southeast.