New variant ‘proving very difficult to suppress’ as Covid infections remain high

Coronavirus infections appear to be levelling off across the UK, the latest figures show – sparking concern that the new variant first detected in southeast England is “proving very difficult to suppress”.

An estimated one in 55 people in England had Covid-19 between 17 and 23 January, according to a new infection survey published by the Office for National Statistics. This is broadly unchanged from the previous estimates for 10 to 16 January.

This suggests more than one million people had coronavirus last week.

The ONS said the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England “remains high”, with the greatest rates continuing to be seen in London, where one in 35 people were infected in the seven days up to 23 January.

The UK R rate is meanwhile estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.1, according to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

The latest growth rate range, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, now stands between -5 and 0.

If the growth rate is greater than 0, then the epidemic is intensifying. If the growth rate is less than 0, then the epidemic is shrinking.

The new estimates released by the ONS and Sage suggest that the recent decline in UK infections, first triggered by the national lockdown, may be plateauing or even slowing in some regions.

“Today’s release from ONS is not good news,” said Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute. “Whilst cases are clearly down from their peak, (also seen in hospital admissions) over the last two weeks the decline may have stopped. Next week will confirm this.  

“The prevalence of infection rates remain high and this will translate to a high number of deaths in the weeks ahead. The new variant has, as we feared, proven very difficult to suppress with UK lockdown measures.

“With over 100,000 dead, I realise the certainty of thousands more deaths is bleak news.”

In Wales, around one in 70 people had Covid-19 last week – also unchanged from the previous estimate, the ONS said.

The figure for Northern Ireland was around one in 50, up slightly from one in 60, while the estimate for Scotland was broadly unchanged, down slightly from around one in 100 people to one in 110.

The ONS data is based on swabs taken from people in households, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. It does not include care homes, hospitals and other institutional settings.

Because of this, it is seen as a more accurate reflection of the current state of the epidemic in the UK.

Test and Trace data released on Thursday showed a 17 per cent decrease in cases from the previous week, but the system does not account for asymptomatic infections within the population – a key driver of the Covid crisis.

Prof Naismith said data from the ONS echoes the findings from the React study published on Thursday, which showed nearly one in 60 people had the virus between 6 and 22 January.

“These types of studies are more helpful than the official number of positive tests, it is clear that these can underestimate the prevalence of the infection,” he said.

“This is a long-standing and perhaps insoluble problem given where we are, but the mismatch in the number of people actually infected and the number of people who are actually tested is what dooms the track and trace system.

“The vaccine campaign is realistically the only way out of the bind we are in.”

Nonetheless, the weekly number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19 appears to be decreasing.

In the week ending 24 January, Covid-19 hospitalisations across the country fell to 33.51 per 100,000 people from a rate of 35.64 – the lowest of 2021 so far.

The ONS survey also showed that the percentage of cases that are compatible with the new variant increased in the East Midlands in the week up to 23 January. Rates were relatively stable or declining in all other regions of England.