Post-Thanksgiving Covid spike should serve as warning for UK ahead of Christmas, NHS leader says

The spike in coronavirus cases and deaths seen across the US in the wake of Thanksgiving should serve as a warning for the UK ahead of the Christmas period, an NHS leader has said.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts in England, said that the relaxation of restrictions could trigger a third wave of Covid-19 as people return home to spend time with their families throughout December.

In the US, cases, hospitalisations and deaths have jumped over the past fortnight, with experts linking the recent surge to Thanksgiving and the mass movement of Americans across the country.

“If you look at what's happened in the States in terms of Thanksgiving, another national festival where people traditionally gather together and families come together, what you've seen is a real rapid increase in both cases and hospitalisations and deaths,” Mr Hopson told the BBC on Monday.

“Over the last fortnight, as of yesterday in the States, the number of cases has gone up by 25 per cent, the number of hospitalisations has gone up by 20 per cent in a fortnight, and the number of deaths has gone up by 60 per cent in a fortnight.

“That gives you pretty clear evidence that we already knew that when you increase social contacts, then surprise, surprise, you get further virus spread and you get a higher death rate.”

The US is now regularly reporting more than 3,000 daily coronavirus deaths, and has recorded close to 16 million cases to date.

In the UK, the debate over easing Covid restrictions during the Christmas period continues to rage.

Social distancing rules will be relaxed for five days between 23 and 27 December, allowing family members to hug for the first time in months, while three separate households will be free to mix.

Boris Johnson has been urged not to downgrade restrictions in any area of England ahead of Wednesday’s review of the tiered measures and warnings the Christmas amnesty could accelerate the rate of transmission.

Sir David King, a former government chief scientific adviser, told The Independent that the pandemic was “taking off quite dramatically again”, highlighting an increase in transmissions in London, plus areas of the southeast and east of England.

Raising the alarm over the five-day planned reprieve over the festive period, he said it could turn out to be a “super-spreader” event with a surge of cases in the first weeks of 2021.

Professor Susan Michie, a member of Sage, also urged people to reconsider spending time with their families over the festive period. “We’re in an extremely risky situation,” she told The Independent.

“The main message in my view should be that please think about having your family celebrations and your holidays next summer. Have your Christmas celebrations next summer. This winter really focus on keeping your loved ones safe. If you want to keep people safe as possible the best way is actually not to physically see them.”

This echoes the message delivered by Nicola Sturgeon during her Covid-19 briefing on Monday.

The first minister said face-to-face gatherings present a "real risk" of transmitting coronavirus and warned against them.

Not holding office Christmas parties in person is among the precautions needed to help tackle the spread, she added.

"If you can't work from home and you're sharing a workplace with colleagues just now I understand why it might be tempting to have some sort of celebration or social gathering at work because this obviously has been a really difficult time for everyone," she said.

"But office parties, especially if they involve alcohol, present a real risk of transmission.”