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Ministers caught between lockdown sceptics and ability of coronavirus to exploit any easing of restrictions

Health correspondent Shaun Lintern considers the tough choices ahead in the battle against the coronavirus

Friday 13 November 2020 16:55 EST
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Boris Johnson will face tough decisions on controlling the virus after lockdown ends
Boris Johnson will face tough decisions on controlling the virus after lockdown ends (PA)

Just over a week into the second national lockdown and the signs are positive that the spread of the coronavirus is being flattened and the rate of transmission is falling.

Unlike the first wave, however, which was characterised by a large exponential spike and a precipitous fall after the first lockdown, the second wave is proving to be slower in its rise; worryingly, this may also be the case for its fall.

The new reports released on Friday by the government’s scientists cast some fresh doubt on the effectiveness of the three tiers of restrictions that were brought in during October to tackle regional flare-ups of the disease.

Tier 1 seems to have almost no effect, it is thought, while tier 2 is limited in its ability to hold back the spread of the virus.  

While there is some confidence that tier 3 can cause the transmission rate to fall, it is possible that by the time we leave lockdown on 2 December, the virus will be so widespread in communities that tier 3 may not be enough reduce the R rate sufficiently.

The more widespread the virus, the tougher the measures needed to bring down infections.

The prime minister has promised lockdown will end on 2 December, but cases are still growing around the country, albeit at less of a pace than before.

This means hospitals will still face increased pressure and more patients. Worryingly, while cases are falling among the young, they are still rising in the older age groups – exactly the groups who are most susceptible to suffering severe complications.

All of this makes for grim reading when considering what is next in the battle against Covid-19.

After the first lockdown, the country saw restrictions eased and the prevalence of the virus dramatically reduced.

This time around, the disease has established a major hold in the UK and may not be shaken loose so easily, meaning restrictions may last well into December, possibly over Christmas and into the New Year and beyond.

Ministers are caught between the sceptics on one side – with dozens of Tories last month opposing the new lockdown – and the harsh reality of a virus that exploits any relaxation.

Hospitals are not out of the woods, and deaths and admissions are going to continue to rise.

Tough choices are inevitable in the weeks ahead when we emerge from lockdown.

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