Covid: Rising trend in cases and deaths set to continue for three more weeks, scientists warn

Scientists have warned that the rising trend in Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths could continue for three more weeks, with the UK yet to reach the peak of the current second wave.

According to the latest data, the new, highly contagious variant of coronavirus has helped drive the rate of infection to one in 50 across England – meaning more than a million people now have the virus.

The figures point to the widespread prevalence of Covid-19, which has pushed hospital wards and ambulance services to the brink in recent weeks.

In London, hundreds of people a day are waiting hours for an emergency ambulance to reach them, while some trusts in the southeast have begun transferring critically ill patients to other hospitals across England.

Despite the government’s decision to impose a third national lockdown – set to last at least seven weeks – scientists have predicted that the UK’s Covid crisis will only intensify in the weeks to come, with the impact of social mixing over the Christmas period yet to be fully felt.

“This upward trend of cases (and related hospitalisations and deaths) is likely to continue for another two-three weeks as the impact of social mixing during Christmas/New Year continues to be felt,” said Dr Julian Tang, a professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester.

“But as the numbers of daily new cases start to fall towards the beginning of February, if we start to relax the restrictions then, this will give the virus a chance to surge again.

“So ideally we need to stay in lockdown beyond this, if we really want to suppress this virus sufficiently to allow the vaccination to reach the vulnerable and to avoid overwhelming the NHS.”

The latest estimates released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that, between 27 December and 2 January, 1.1 million people in private households in England were infected with Covid-19 – equivalent to around 2 per cent of the population.

The figures, taken from the ONS Covid-19 infection survey, represent a rise from 800,900 people, or one in 70, who were estimated to have Covid-19 the week before.

Scientists have said that thousands of fatalities are now baked in from the latest wave of infections. Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, warned it was “inevitable” that the UK would reach 100,000 Covid deaths in the “relatively near future”.

Describing the figures as “frighteningly high”, Dr Head said: "If we also highlight the huge numbers of confirmed daily cases, the fact that there's more people in hospital now with Covid-19 than at any state of the pandemic, and that almost any graph you look at is on a steep upward trajectory, then the UK is clearly not in a good place right now."

Dr Amitava Banerjee, a professor in clinical data science at University College London, said the ONS findings indicate that the “pressure on hospitals and the NHS is still yet to peak”.

“People will be wondering why we did not lockdown earlier, given the data regarding the new strain but also given the experience and evidence from the last two lockdowns,” he said. “We know that lockdowns work best and are shorter when they are early and stringent.”

Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at The Open University, said some hospitals are already "pretty full" and he does not expect admissions to ease for "another two to three weeks" following the start of the new lockdown.

The ONS estimates came as the government recorded 60,916 daily cases on Tuesday, and a further 830 deaths.

New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) scientist Professor Robert Dingwall cautioned that although this signalled cases topping 60,000 for the first time, this is partly due to the rise in demand for tests over Christmas.

Prof Dingwall, a leading medical sociologist who advises the government, said: "The data continue to be quite unstable from the holiday period and it may take another few days before we have a clear picture."

On Tuesday evening, professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, warned the public the risk from Covid-19 was "extraordinarily high" if they did not take the government’s stay at home message seriously.

He predicted the risk level would gradually decrease over time with measures "lifted by degrees, possibly at different rates in different parts of the country, we'll have to see".

Scientists acknowledged that the ongoing rollout of the Covid-19 vaccines offered some cause for optimism, as the government aims to inoculate the UK’s top four priority groups – roughly 13 million vulnerable people – by mid-February.

"There is an optimistic future, with the rollout of the vaccine programme," said Dr Head. "The issue is that before we get to the point when we can all relax a little bit, there will be some grim times ahead."