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One in three people in England have coronavirus antibodies, new estimates show

Total of 15.6 million people aged over 16 estimated to have some form of protection against Covid-19, according to Office for National Statistics

Samuel Lovett
Science Correspondent
Tuesday 16 March 2021 10:14 EDT
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Around one in three people in England are estimated to have antibodies against Covid-19, according to new data.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that a total of 15.6 million people aged 16 and over - or 34.6 per cent of the population - would have returned a positive result if tested for antibodies up to 3 March.

This is up from mid-February’s estimate of 10.5 million, and comes amid the ongoing success of the UK’s vaccine programme, which has delivered more than 24.5 million first doses to date.

“In the 28 days up to 3 March 2021, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies increased across all four UK countries,” the ONS said.

The body added that there was “some variation” in antibody positivity between England’s nine main regions.

Rates were highest in the North West, London, and the West Midlands, and lowest in the South West and South East.

In terms of age, the highest percentages of people testing positive for antibodies were for those the over-80s at 75.7 per cent.

In contrast, positivity ranges from 27.4 per cent to 32.0 per cent for those those aged under 70 years.

In Wales, an estimated 30.5 per cent of the population would have tested positive in the 28 days up to 3 March. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, this figure stands at 22.3 and 31.2 per cent respectively.

It takes between two and three weeks for the body to make enough antibodies to fight off infection from Sars-CoV-2 but once a person recovers, these ‘search-and-destroy’ proteins remain in the blood at low levels.

Over time, a person’s antibody count can decline to the point that tests no longer detect them - though research has shown that immunity against Covid-19 lasts at least eight months, and could offer some form of natural protection for a number of years.

The ONS' estimates are based on thousands of blood tests that are carried out by a trained professional at participants’ homes. The results of this survey are then extrapolated to the nationwide population.

Sample testing is specific people over the age of 16 and excludes those in hospitals, care homes and other institutional settings in England.

The 34.6 per cent estimate for England is the highest since the ONS study began in May 2020, at the height of the first wave.

Separate data released by the ONS on Tuesday also showed that care home resident deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales have fallen by more than three quarters in a month.

There were 2,175 care home resident deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate registered in the week ending 5 February, the ONS said.

The latest weekly figures show 467 care home resident deaths involving Covid-19 were registered in the week to March 5 - down 78.5 per cent in four weeks.

The figures cover deaths of care home residents in all settings, not just in care homes.

The ONS data also shows that the overall number of deaths of care home residents have been below the average for this time of year for three weeks in a row.

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