Coronavirus: Health bosses demand urgent action to prevent ‘full blown' second wave

Health bosses have warned that urgent action is needed to prevent a “full blown” second wave, amid mounting concern that the NHS is not prepared for the ongoing rise in hospital admissions due to shortages in staffing and capacity.

A total of 3,412 people are currently in hospital with Covid-19 following a spike in admissions over the past seven days, while over 17,000 new cases were recorded across the UK on Thursday.

Health secretary Matt Hancock has said that the virus is now spreading “quite sharply” among the over-60s, an age group more prone to serious illness or death from the disease.

Although advancements have been made in the treatment of critically ill patients, health leaders remain fearful that the emerging second wave could still overwhelm the NHS in the months to come.

Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents all NHS Trusts, said the large increase in positive cases across the UK was “very worrying”.

“Trust chief executives across the North West, North East and Yorkshire are telling us that Covid-related hospital admissions are rapidly rising as well,” he said on Thursday.

“We need prompt action to prevent a full blown second Covid surge. We need to make difficult decisions now, rather than later, when it may be too late.”

“And we need every single member of the public to play their part – hands, face and space – as they did in the first phase of Covid, however frustrating and burdensome they find any restrictions or public health advice.”

Mr Hopson’s comments come amid a series of leaked hospital forecasts which predict that admissions in the north west are “extremely likely” to reach the levels of the April peak.

Projections by Public Health England, seen by Manchester Evening News, suggest that hospitals in Greater Manchester will be recording roughly 240 new Covid admissions a day by the end of October.

A separate briefing document prepared by officials at Blackburn with Darwen Council, leaked to the Health Service Journal  (HSJ), predicts that the northwest region could have around 3,000 Covid patients in hospital over the next “17 to 22 days”.

This figure could rise to 6,000 in 30 to 35 days if no action is taken to change the region’s rising R rate over the next week, HSJ reports.

Currently, NHS hospitals are admitting around 450 new patients with Covid-19 across the UK each day. And 200 of those are within the northwest, northeast and Yorkshire regions. 

The latest government data shows that 51,475 people tested positive for Covid-19 between 24 and 30 September – a 56 per cent increase on the previous week – but only 34,494 people, roughly two-thirds of cases, were transferred to Test and Trace.

Meanwhile, some 68.6 per cent of close contacts were reached through the system, once dubbed “world-beating” by prime minister Boris Johnson, over the same time period.

As cases, admissions and deaths continue to rise – the government reported on Wednesday that 70 more people had died from Covid-19, bringing the national tally to 42,515 – questions have been raised as to whether NHS departments have the resources to tackle a second wave.

“The sharp end of the NHS has scarcely had time to breathe let alone recharge,” Dr Susan Crossland, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said during a virtual conference of NHS leaders.

“Numbers now attending our units are almost at pre-pandemic levels and it is seeing non-Covid patients as well as the inexorable rise of Covid admissions that means we need to tackle staffing and capacity urgently.”

Dr Crossland warned that many staff seconded to other departments due to Covid-19 had not returned, while those drafted in to help during the height of the pandemic have since been recalled to their original specialities.

PHE expressed similar concerns about rising hospital admissions.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director for PHE, said: “We are seeing a definite and sustained increase in cases and admissions to hospital.”

“The trend is clear and it is very concerning,” she added, speaking at the same conference. 

"It remains essential that we all continue to socially distance, wash our hands regularly, wear a face covering when needed and follow the guidance if living in an area with additional restrictions.

"Numbers of deaths from Covid-19 are also rising, so we must continue to act to reduce transmission of this virus."

Earlier in the week, Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, said that 2020 had “without doubt been the most challenging year in the history of the national health service”.

He added that said it was clear pressures were rising: “Speaking frankly there are disturbing signs that infection rates from coronavirus are, again, rising. They are clearly headed in the wrong direction, not just nationally, but particularly in some regions and local areas across the country.  

“At the start of September, we had under 500 coronavirus inpatients in hospitals across England. That is now nearly 3000. And we know that hospital admissions lag community infection by several weeks.”