Coronavirus: Public should be warned of growing NHS waiting lists, say health leaders

The public should be warned not to expect the same standard of service from the NHS as they did prior to the coronavirus crisis, as health leaders confirmed waiting lists could hit 10 million later this year.

In a new report on Wednesday the NHS Confederation, which represents over 500 healthcare organisations, agreed with the findings of an investigation by The Independent at the weekend that revealed the scale of the challenge facing hospitals in coming months.

The combined effect of delaying routine operations and referrals during the height of the crisis, and the need to maintain social distancing and segregate patients, means the NHS cannot deliver the same number of operations and treatments as it could before the pandemic.

At the weekend The Independent revealed NHS England will extend its contract with private hospitals amid talks to agree a longer-term deal to carry out more than 500,000 extra NHS operations a year.

This is necessary because many hospitals are being forced to reduce beds and operate at only 60 per cent capacity.

The NHS Confederation said the most realistic scenario was for a waiting list of 10 million by the end of this year, a sixth of England’s population.

In a worst case scenario in the event of a second wave of Covid-19 and a lack of a vaccine or successful treatment, the waiting list could hit 11 million.

The NHS Confederation said ministers needed to prepare the public and warned some staff were so exhausted and traumatised that they will need ongoing support.

NHS Confederation chief executive Niall Dickson said: “NHS leaders understand the need to ease lockdown and get the country ‘back to work’.

“Part of this will involve restarting diagnostic screening, routine operations, outpatient appointments and other care, but we need to do this safely.

“Our members are aware that the virus is still with us and of the real risks of outbreaks in care settings.

“That is why we need a robust plan, communicated clearly, and to make sure the NHS can prepare safely, protecting its staff, patients and the wider community as it does so.

“Political leaders have a vital role to play in reassuring the public that every step possible is being taken to manage the virus, while safely bringing back services that had to be paused.

“Retaining public confidence and trust in the NHS will be vital over the next few months.”

The report said that “recent short-term financial commitments”, including the coronavirus emergency response fund and the writing off of provider debt, have been welcome, but many hospitals still face a rapidly deteriorating financial position.

The study also calls for an extension of the current deal with the independent sector until the end of the financial year “to provide capacity to support the NHS to manage the backlog of treatment”.

In addition, the Nightingale Hospitals should also be maintained in case of any further spikes in infections, it said.

The report also called for a review of “burnout and wider wellbeing” across the NHS and social care workforce.

Additional reporting by agencies.