Coronavirus: Deaths among over-80s fall faster as vaccine impact emerges

Deaths among people over 80 are falling faster than with other age groups, suggesting the UK’s vaccine programme is starting to have an impact on the coronavirus pandemic.

According to analysis of the latest data, the proportion of deaths among the over-80s, as a seven-day average, has dropped by almost 50 per cent between 31 January to 10 February.

This compares to a fall of 39 per cent for those aged under 80 over the same period.

Age is the most significant risk factor for death from coronavirus, with those aged over 80 prioritised for vaccinations since the start of September.

The analysis by Edge Health looked at the share of deaths over the latest rolling seven day averages for both age groups and shows the deaths of the over-80s is falling 25 per cent faster than other ages.

On 31 January the seven day average number of deaths for those over 80 was 593. By 10 February, this had fallen to 307, a drop of 48 per cent.

For those aged up to 79-years-old the share of deaths over seven days was 378 on 31 January, dropping 39 per cent to 232.

Jon Bruce, senior consultant at Edge Health, told The Independent: “Although the first vaccinations were delivered on 8 December, the vaccination programme did not really ramp up until January with more than 90 per cent of vaccinations delivered to date being done since 4 January.

“Allowing two weeks for the vaccination to take effect, and a further 17 days before someone catching Covid-19 would typically pass away, we expected to start seeing an impact of the vaccination roll-out during the first weeks of February.

“This is borne out in the data – since 30 January, deaths in patients aged 80 and above who are more likely to have been vaccinated, have fallen markedly more rapidly than those aged between 0 and 79. The rapid fall in deaths for people in high-priority groups for vaccination is a cause for optimism.

“However we’re not out of the woods yet – deaths remain high, while concerns over vaccine supply and effectiveness against mutation remain.”

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The government has extended vaccinations to anyone over 65 after hitting its target of vaccinating the top four priority groups this week with more than 15 million people vaccinated so far.

Ministers are now aiming to inoculate the over-50s by the end of May although there is speculation this could be reached much sooner.

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), deaths in the latest week fell for the first time since Christmas across England and Wales.

There were 7,320 deaths registered in the week ending 5 February where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate, the ONS said.

This is a fall of 1,113 deaths, or 13 per cent, compared with the previous week.

Coronavirus accounted for 43 per cent of the overall deaths registered during the seven days, which also fell from the previous week.

All regions in England and Wales saw a decrease in the number of deaths involving Covid compared to the previous week, but still have an overall higher number of deaths compared to the average for the same period over the past five years.

A total of 37,895 care home residents in England and Wales have now had Covid-19 recorded on their death certificate, the ONS said.

A total of 10,133 care home resident deaths involving coronavirus have been registered so far this year – more than a quarter of the total so far during the pandemic.

Prof Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said there was "still a very long way to go".

“The pattern of deaths is a very great deal different from what we'd have seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.

“In that latest week, the number of deaths from all causes in England and Wales was 41 per cent higher than the five-year average number for the same week.

“That's 5,500 more deaths in a week than average for this time of year - fewer than a week before, but still a distressingly large number.”