Government winter plan admits Christmas mixing will spread coronavirus

Relaxing coronavirus restrictions for five days will lead to an increase in transmission of the virus, the government’s winter plan has admitted.

The plan, published on Monday by the Department of Health and Social Care, spells out the strategy for tackling the pandemic during the winter months following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s announcement that the new three-tier system will be in place until spring.

Downing Street is negotiating with the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments to introduce a time-limited relaxation of rules over the Christmas period that could allow families to be together for up to five days.

But the newly published winter plan warned: “Christmas will likely lead to an increase in transmission and, historically, the period after Christmas is when the NHS sees the greatest pressure on services such as accident and emergency and the highest rates of bed occupancy.”

It said that families meeting at Christmas would “not be risk-free” adding: “Meeting up with other households will increase the risk of catching Covid-19 and passing it on to others. Even where it is within the rules, meeting with friends and family over Christmas will be a personal judgement for individuals to take, mindful of the risks to themselves and others, particularly those who are vulnerable.”

It added: “The public will be advised to remain cautious. Wherever possible people should avoid travelling and minimise social contact.”

The winter plan also reveals plans to boost spending on the government’s test-and-trace service run by Baroness Dido Harding which will see its funding jump by £7 billion to £22 billion this financial year.

The extra money will be used to expand testing for coronavirus, including more mass-testing of the public following pilots in Liverpool. It also includes extra testing of care home residents, which will become weekly, and more testing of care home visitors to enable an easing of restrictions.

The document said: “The government will roll-out rapid testing nationally to NHS front-line staff, social care and other high risk or critical settings. This strategy is backed by an additional £7 billion for NHS Test and Trace to increase testing and continue to improve contact tracing, taking the overall funding provided for Test and Trace this financial year to £22 billion.

“The government is committed, by Christmas, to providing twice-weekly testing to enable all care home residents to have regular visits from up to two visitors. If a visitor has a negative test, is wearing appropriate PPE, and follows other infection control measures, then it will be possible for visitors to have physical contact with their loved one, such as providing personal care, holding hands and hugging.”

For hospitals this winter the plan said ministers were confident they now had enough personal protective equipment (PPE).

It said by next month, 70 per cent expected winter demand for protective aprons, gloves and masks would be possible from UK based manufacturers.

It added: “Although gloves are not currently produced in the UK, the government is confident in supply. Almost 32 billion items of PPE have been ordered, of which over half are already in the UK. This month stockpiles will be in place for all Covid-critical PPE, sufficient to cover 120 days usage at Covid-19 levels.”

The plan also reveals hospitals will get an extra £205 million this winter to help recruit more staff as well as £125 million for additional hospice capacity to free up beds for patients at the end of their life.

On Sunday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced he would be giving the NHS £1 billion specifically to help tackle the backlog in operations and waiting lists caused by the impact of coronavirus.

Dr Susan Crossland, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: “The Covid winter plan produced by the prime minister and the government today to allegedly see the country and NHS through the end of this year and into the next is woefully short on important detail.

“For example, how many of the extra staff will be permanent or on the frontline? For far too long during this pandemic we have seen soundbites from the government which have lacked substance and that needs to be addressed.

“There is still a failure to recognise the impact of severe reductions in bed capacity over recent years and the inability to sufficiently staff expanding services. A plan light on detail at this crucial time is no way to provide reassurance.

“We would like to know where the focus of this extra funding for the NHS is going and, having already written and raised this with the government, if any steps will be taken to enhance same day emergency care provision.”

Liam Smeeth, professor of clinical epidemiology, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “A road-map towards a much better time for the UK is becoming clear. A period of tiered measures in December is warranted now in order to allow some social mixing at Christmas.

“A further circuit breaker in January or possibly February may well be needed because Christmas will place huge upward pressure on transmission rates. But, it is realistic to hope that by March or April the vast majority of older people, care home residents, and those with severe conditions will have been immunised. We can then work towards wider immunisation — with ideally most or all of the population covered in time for next winter. Life won’t ever be the same as it was before Covid-19, but within a few months it will feel a whole lot better than now.”